Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Credit spreads and excess returns Although the spreads of many “risky” bonds have risen significantly this year, some aren’t currently at levels that have typically been followed by substantial future outperformance of their “safe”... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What the bond market is telling us about inflation US inflation compensation began to unwind its post-FOMC bounce last week, following some hawkish comments from Fed officials and a slump in oil prices. With inflation compensation now some way below... 8th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Output will return to pre-virus trend eventually With a record virus wave sweeping across the country and consumer confidence slumping, we’re slashing our forecast for Q3 consumption growth from 0.8% to 0.2%. While the government has refrained from... 8th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies as hope for a Fed pivot proves short-lived The huge upside surprise in US payrolls data pushed the greenback higher against most major currencies today in an otherwise quiet week for FX markets. The continued strength of the labour market in... 5th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Economic resilience may end the twin rally in bonds and stocks After a few weeks of strong performance, “safe” and “risky” assets have both generally sold off today after the strong US payrolls data. We expect this to continue over the rest of 2022. 5th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar rally still has further to run We think the dollar will appreciate further through at least the end of the year as the global economy continues to falter and “safe-haven” demand remains strong. Although we see limited scope for a... 4th August 2022 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB brings its tightening cycle to an end The Czech National Bank became the first major EM central bank to end its tightening cycle after it left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today. The communications were not as dovish as we had... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect BoE hikes to put upward pressure on Gilt yields While the 10-year Gilt yield initially dropped after today’s 50bp hike by the Bank of England, we still expect ongoing monetary tightening to push that yield up over the rest of this year. 4th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the latest asset price rallies will prove short-lived We doubt the recent rallies in global bond and equity markets will be sustained over the remainder of the year. While we no longer think the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed its June peak, we... 3rd August 2022 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily We expect real yields to be a near-term headwind for gold We think that real yields in the US will continue to rise and put renewed pressure on the price of gold and most other assets. 3rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
