Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the costs and benefits of a weaker pound We think that the Egyptian pound needs to fall a lot further which, in the near-term, will push up inflation and harm the sovereign debt position. But it will be key to boosting Egypt’s external... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks beginning to shift focus The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering... 23rd August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar gains on safe-haven demand, fading “pivot” narrative The US dollar rallied sharply this week, regaining most of the ground lost since its mid-July peak as US interest rate expectations rebounded and risk appetite faded. All G10 currencies fell against... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upward revision to market rate expectations overdone While we agree with investors that a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike on 15th September now looks increasingly likely, we think investors have gone too far in pricing in a further 200bps of... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think the rally in the S&P 500 will last Despite its recent resurgence, we still expect the S&P 500 to fall over the remainder of this year. 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet. 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the Central Bank of Egypt The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer yesterday has further increased scrutiny of the country’s exchange rate policy. A weaker pound is clearly needed, preferably under an... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for stock market sectors We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
