Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (June 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past couple of weeks in light of the US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Outflows could pick up again if the fragile truce falls... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily We remain bullish on Gilts despite political headwinds Gilts have not really rallied over the past week or so despite oil prices falling further. But we think they will soon, irrespective of political headwinds. 24th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of tech stocks’ latest tumble Today’s big falls in tech stocks without any major catalyst is another illustration of rising volatility in these stocks, a result of what increasingly looks like frothy earnings expectations and/or... 23rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook RBI will need to hike interest rates before long The energy shock has taken a toll on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average around 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 23rd June 2026 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How worried is the Gilt market about the “King in the North”? Gilt yields have risen substantially today, but that doesn’t, primarily, appear to reflect Andy Burnham’s big win in the Makerfield by-election and presumed challenge for the Labour leadership. Indeed... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MOU and the path to recovery, Egyptian pound rallies The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is a major step towards a resolution of the conflict and a recovery in Gulf... 18th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three questions for Treasuries in the Fed’s new era A sustained rally in Treasuries is, in our view, unlikely over the next year or so, given the macro backdrop and what we’ve heard from the first press conference under the new Fed Chair. 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Volatility may weigh on semiconductor stocks Semiconductor stocks appear increasingly volatile relative to the broader stock market. While that alone is hardly cause for them to underperform, it could become a headwind to them if it continues. 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Some reasons for caution, but not panic, on the S&P 500 Despite some warning signs under the hood of the S&P 500’s rally, we aren’t ready to call time on it yet. The market could make further gains, potentially quite large ones, before running into any... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More upside for global equities after the end of the war? Although MSCI’s ACWI Index of global equities is already more than 7% higher than before the start of the Iran war, this weekend’s fragile peace deal may keep it rallying further in the near term. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update How has the AI rally affected global equity valuations? The extent to which the AI-related rally in stock markets over recent years has been driven by (expected) earnings or valuations depends on how you measure these things. But in general, stocks in... 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Is the S&P 500 really value for money? The valuation of the S&P 500 continues to look very stretched after accounting for the ‘noise’ of the earnings cycle. This is one sign that we may be in the ‘blow-off’ phase of the AI-fuelled rally. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
