Equities Update How much more upside for equities if the Strait re-opened fully? If the Strait of Hormuz re-opened fully soon, the upside for global equities might appear limited given MSCI’s ACWI Index is now more than 4% higher than before the Iran war began. But its surge from... 7th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US-Iran peace: fifth time the charm for markets? Financial markets have responded strongly to signs that the US-Iran conflict may end soon. We think government bonds have further to rally than most assets given how far they still are from pre-war... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Making sense of the war’s impact on commodity currencies If a deal materialises between the US and Iran, we think currencies of energy exporters would still hold up fairly well this year given it would still take some time for the terms of trade shock to... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech stocks versus oil, bonds versus central banks Tech stocks have continued to power ahead despite renewed concerns around the war, but we don’t think they’re completely immune to it. Meanwhile, central bank inaction could be a threat to bond... 5th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 5th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The jury remains out on the AI CapEx splurge The mixed reaction to this week’s earnings releases from four US hyperscalers was a reminder of how sensitive investors have become to the firms’ plans for capital spending (CapEx), given the huge... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers do their part, but oil prices still driving bond markets Policymakers talking (and, in Japan, acting) tough may help to shore up market confidence and buy time until a resolution to the crisis in the Gulf materialises. But financial markets remain in large... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Interactive Markets Chart Pack We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets with a focus on how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the outlook for... 30th April 2026 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three questions for markets, two months into the crisis With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities... 28th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk rally on borrowed time while the Strait remains closed If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
