FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Middle East escalation offers a lifeline for the dollar The dollar has recovered some of the ground it lost earlier in the week in the wake of Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran. While that still leaves the greenback near its lowest level in more than... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Israel-Iran escalation and global markets At the time of writing, global markets were in a “risk-off” mood after Israel’s strikes on Iran. We think there are three key initial points to make. 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar still can’t catch a break President Trump’s latest tariff threats, combined with some softer US price and employment data, has sent the US dollar to its lowest level, in aggregate, in more than three years. There are still... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at equities and tariffs President Trump’s recent suggestion that he may yet ratchet US tariffs higher highlights how much uncertainty there still is around both where tariff rates will eventually settle and the US policy... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal mess to push bond spreads wider Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the... 10th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets right to now dismiss US tariff risks? With one month to go until the “pause” of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” is, at least in principle, set to expire, market participants continue to take a pretty relaxed view of the... 9th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve... 9th June 2025 · 17 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: US dollar remains on edge The US dollar is enjoying a strong end to the week thanks to signs of economic resilience in the latest US Employment Report but, for the second week in a row, the DXY Index is little changed on net... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors don’t seem very worried about the US economy May’s Employment Report in the US ought to assuage concerns about the economy after some softer data earlier this week. But even if growth there holds up over the rest of the year, investors’ current... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to drive EUR/USD any higher While the ECB cut its policy rate today, as widely expected, President Lagarde’s accompanying comments tilted hawkish and have given interest rate expectations and the euro a boost. Our view remains... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus CBDCs: evolution, not revolution Many central banks, especially in DMs, appear unconvinced about the need for retail central bank digital currencies CBDCs (rCBDCs) and so a big revolution in the monetary system seems unlikely. There... 5th June 2025 · 19 mins read
