Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The surge in housing starts to a 10-month high in September casts doubt on our view that there is much worse still to come for residential investment, especially as the recent stabilisation of the... 18th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) A further deterioration in demand in August has led surveyors to accept that a fall in prices is coming. The survey is already consistent with prices falling by 2% q/q in Q4 this year, and the... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) Home sales fell further below the pre-pandemic norm in July and pre-construction sales seem to have fallen through the floor, but there is no evidence yet that this is weighing on construction. 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family housing starts fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, leaving them down by 25% from their high at the end of 2021. Leading indicators point to a much larger decline in the coming... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Build to Rent will continue to thrive The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to fall and activity to slump Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the... 12th August 2022 · 23 mins read
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower. 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Stagflation summer The further falls in home sales and employment in July add to the evidence that the economy is losing momentum. With no sign of a material easing of inflationary pressures, however, it is too soon to... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) Like Nationwide, Halifax reported that house price growth ground to a halt in July. As these house price indices are based on mortgage approvals, its possible that affordability rules put a temporary... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.) The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply limits threat from rising construction The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
