US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The modest fall in existing home sales in September shows that the housing market is struggling to gain any traction in this poor economic climate. In fact, it is hard to see home sales rising at all... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the house price correction about to pick up pace? Our forecasts already envisage that the pace of house price falls will increase next year. With most of the recent downgrade to our economic forecasts accounted for by the deteriorating prospects for... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The 15% m/m rise in housing starts in September comes hot on the heels of the rise in the NAHB homebuilders' index to a 17-month high in October and suggests that housing may finally be helping the... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How well founded is the rise in house prices in the South? Yesterday’s report by Rightmove illustrated the huge North/South divide in average asking prices. But the fact that this North/South split is notable by its absence from the transactions data suggests... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low demand constraining sales, not low supply Recent suggestions that home sales are being held back by a lack of inventory are misguided as the excess inventory may still amount to one million homes. Moreover, the "shadow inventory" may consist... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Could housing investment growth re-accelerate? The recent surge in multi-unit housing starts indicates that new construction activity could boost overall residential investment growth for at least one or two more quarters, possibly even into early... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A weak labour market will keep the housing market depressed House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Sep.) The latest regional data suggest that the northern regions of the UK have recently managed to grow at a similar, albeit sluggish, pace to those in the South. However, conditions in the northern labour... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Sep) The RICS Housing Market Survey suggests that the market remained in limbo in September. In particular, there was nothing in the survey to provide hope that the recent rise in mortgage approvals was... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m decline in CoreLogic's measure of house prices in August may be the start of the renewed modest acceleration in price declines that we have been warning about. Prices may still stabilise... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China facing a property market collapse? Property developers in China are facing a grim year ahead, with a likely slump in project starts set to drag on broader economic growth. The sector should nonetheless be able to avoid a collapse... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The latest fall in the Halifax house price index seems to echo recent downbeat news on the economy. While low interest rates make judging the timing difficult, the gloomy economic outlook suggests... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) September's mortgage applications figures suggest that the decrease in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of this week won't significantly reduce mortgage demand. Nevertheless, the weak... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can the mortgage market recovery weather the euro-zone crisis? Mortgage lending has strengthened in recent months. But strains from the crisis in the euro-zone are now showing through in UK lenders’ funding costs, giving another reason not to expect a fully... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) & Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The unexpectedly strong rise in mortgage approvals, combined with a marginal rise in the Nationwide house price index, might suggest that the risk of further house price falls is receding. But, in our... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Aug.) House prices softened in August. But the market appears to be becoming increasingly polarised along regional lines. London still looks reasonably resilient for now, whereas northern regions are... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
