US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The marginal rise in house prices in July, which did no more than reverse the previous month’s decline, supports our view that house price inflation will slow to 4% y/y by the end of this year. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The Nationwide reported that house prices fell for the first time in 17 months in September, providing further evidence of a cooling housing market. With other forward looking indicators also weak... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House price inflation will slow further Loosening mortgage credit conditions, decent jobs gains and accelerating wage growth will help home sales rise over the next 12 months. But the improvement in selling conditions is also tempting... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The number of mortgages approved for house purchase dropped once again in August. Housing demand is cooling on the back of high house prices, but as price gains moderate and real earnings pick up... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Aug.) The large 1.0% m/m rise in house prices in August reported by the Land Registry reflects tight market conditions in the spring. But forward looking indicators continue to point to a cooling in housing... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The increase in new home sales to a six-year high in August suggests that looser credit conditions and strengthening economic activity are finally giving households the confidence to purchase a new... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The main high street banks cut the number of mortgages approved for house purchase for the second month in a row in August, to their lowest level in a year. Weak housing demand argues against a... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The decline in existing home sales in August hints at a vulnerability in the recovery in sales activity – it’s built on higher than normal levels of cash buyers and investors. These groups took a step... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage arrears return to pre-crisis rates – but will they stay there? Mortgage arrears have returned to pre-crisis rates despite six years of falling real earnings. Instead the improvement is largely down to record low interest rates. All else equal, that suggests... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) The decline in housing starts in August was worse than we or the consensus had anticipated and stands in stark contrast to surging homebuilder confidence. This weakness should prove temporary, however... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will the demand for new homes continue to cool? After growing at a rapid pace for 16 months, growth in demand for new homes has eased back sharply. But that appears to be driven primarily by a shortage of homes actually up for sale – if builders... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Healthy labour market keeping policymakers calm Premier Li Keqiang’s comments last week prioritising reform over stimulus have taken on added significance in the light of the weekend’s weak activity data. Policymakers are aware that efforts to... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation rose to 5.0% in August, up slightly from 4.9% in July. Nevertheless, the sales-to-listings ratio... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How significant is the new Case-Shiller house price index? The new Case-Shiller house price index improves on its predecessors by giving a monthly read on nationa l house prices. The historical revisions suggest that the housing bust was not as deep as... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
