Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in June, in part down to the referendum and lingering effects of the stamp duty surcharge. And with the fall in new buyer enquiries unlikely to reverse soon... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures highlighted that the housing market cooled further around the time of the EU referendum. But there were no signs of a more general slowdown in lending. Nonetheless... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 16) Data from Nationwide suggest that house price growth held broadly steady in the first month after Brexit. But the nature of the data, as well as the fact that other indicators are consistent with... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (May/Jun.) New homes sales have performed well in recent months, and now stand at their highest level for over eight years. But with housing starts stalling, inventory levels are becoming tighter. That implies... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July left the index still at a high level by historical standards. It also supports our view that, after what could turn... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun. 2016) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in June, as uncertainty, both in the run-up to the referendum and in its aftermath, weighed on demand. And the post-Brexit data we’ve seen so far is... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Few signs of collapse in prices but risks loom The data so far on housing market activity and prices are broadly to our expectations, pointing to a fall in transactions but no collapse in prices. Yet with data from this morning reporting a sharp... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (May.) The annual rate of house price growth held firm in May. And while house price growth in London is still running strong, survey data suggest that price growth in the capital will cool sharply over the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New LVR rules raise the chance of rates going below 2.0% Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it intends to tighten existing loan-to-value restrictions will not only go some way to addressing the risks to financial stability posed by... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit will have limited impact on housing market The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth already fading again After a brief surge at the start of this year, GDP growth has already slowed markedly in recent months. (See Chart.) Unfortunately, the recent limited rebound in commodity prices won’t be enough to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
