Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper falls in Warsaw office rents to come in 2021 Given its significant office supply pipeline, we have revised down our rental forecast for Warsaw offices this year despite a recovery in the labour market. And while we expect rents to pick up in... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New space brings downgrade to NYC office rents The limited impact of the virus on New York City office construction means that we now expect at least 10mn sq. ft. of office space to be added across 2022-23. This could cause the vacancy rate to... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where might industrial yields fall most this year? Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have capital value falls bottomed out? The final few months of MSCI monthly data for 2020 suggest that the fall in capital values last year was not as bad as we anticipated. But we still think a prolonged period of tight restrictions and... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) Market sentiment remained close to cyclical lows, with rental and capital value expectations deeply negative for office and retail. But there are signs that the market is nearing a turning point, with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update No stopping Dublin industrial rental growth A healthy economic backdrop, favourable supply conditions and the potential for a post-Brexit boost mean that we forecast Dublin industrial rents to keep growing at around 2% p.a. over the coming... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Life science growth will support Boston offices We expect the boost in demand for life science product will support Boston’s office market. At the same time, office-to-lab conversions will limit the impact of a relatively large development pipeline... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2020) All-property total returns strengthened in Q4, broadly as we had expected. And the data continued to point to the importance of sector selection to returns. Perhaps the real surprise was that NCREIF... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Oslo office yields continue to edge lower? Although much of 2020’s fall in Norwegian government bond yields has been reversed, we think that improving economic activity and supportive valuations will allow prime office yields to reach new... 25th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Still too early to call a turn in property A return to rental growth and stronger capital value growth in December hint to a turnaround in UK commercial property. But this was a surprising development and we think it is too early to call the... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growth in Paris office rents has further to go Despite the softness in occupier activity, prime office rents in the French capital grew at a healthy pace in 2020. And with the labour market set to recover in the second half of this year and a... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors in Europe moving down the risk curve Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in December, probably reflecting a softening in investment activity on the back of renewed lockdowns. This points to a similarly slow start to 2021 before the... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update REITs suggest limited upside to property values Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn... 14th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hub and spoke model not the future of offices Many commentators are arguing that firms will shift towards a “hub and spoke” model following the pandemic. But we think the arguments for this approach are not as strong as they first seem, and that... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
