US Commercial Property Update Hotel RevPar growth to stall in 2023 Revenues in the hotel sector have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels after being the hardest hit by COVID-19. Although there are few signs yet of momentum slowing, we expect growth in the sector to... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone all-property rents to stagnate next year The deep recession faced by the euro-zone in the coming year will cause a sharp slowdown in prime rental growth, which we now expect to drop to 0% at the all-property level next year. We don’t think... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: What recession will mean for real estate returns 1667318400 With a US recession looming, Kiran Raichura and Andrew Burrell held a briefing on the impact of weaker growth on commercial real estate returns and answering your questions.
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) CRE lending growth slowed significantly in September, with both multifamily and other commercial sectors seeing the smallest rise in outstanding debt for at least six months. We expect the rate of... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for Prague office rents The post-pandemic rebound in the Prague office market is likely to prove short-lived. With the Czech economy slowing and employment expected to contract, occupier demand will soften just as new office... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) The Q3 credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the impact of the market turmoil of recent weeks, with the deadline for responses falling a week before the “mini-budget”. Nonetheless, it shows rising... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where are industrial rental prospects strongest? We think online demand will continue to be an important driver of relative rental prospects in European industrial markets as we move into the post-pandemic era. But the outlook for traditional demand... 12th October 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning are property fund outflows? In response to a surge in withdrawals as pension funds rushed to secure cash to meet margin calls, several property funds implemented restrictions to prevent the need for a fire-sale of assets. To... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We don’t expect the relative rout in US REITs to persist Although we think that US equity REITs may have further to fall, we don’t expect them to continue to underperform the broader US stock market. The key reason is that we don’t expect Treasury yields to... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
