US Commercial Property Update

Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough

The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in...

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

New office forecasts for seven regional UK cities

We have augmented our UK Commercial Property coverage with the addition of office forecasts for seven major regional cities. Overall performance is informed by our views on the RoUK market, but...

9th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Global Commercial Property Update

Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026

As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026.

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Retail shines in a disappointing recovery

Below-trend economic growth and high interest rates will continue to weigh on all-property total returns, which we think will average just 5.5% p.a. over 2026-30. Of the major sectors, we think retail...

4th December 2025 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov. 25)

The headline CIPS construction PMI fell for the second consecutive month to a new post-pandemic low of 39.4 in November. The drop was broad-based across the sectors, with the housing balance seeing a...

4th December 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

European residential outperformance to persist over 2026-30

Residential rent growth is set to slow over the next couple of years as wage growth moderates, but we expect it to remain above past averages given tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, we think yields...

2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Outlook

Narrow yield spreads to limit size and speed of the recovery

Asia-Pacific property faces a slow, uneven recovery as high risk-free rates and weak growth limit investment demand and therefore, prospects for yield-driven capital gains. Spreads over risk-free...

2nd December 2025 · 18 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Oct. 25)

At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level since June.

1st December 2025 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025)

Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates...

26th November 2025 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

UK Commercial Property Outlook: Higher gilt yields and taxes to weigh on recovery

With the 10-year gilt yield now set to be higher for longer and the Budget likely to raise taxes on households, the outlook for commercial property has become a bit gloomier. We now expect total...

25th November 2025 · 26 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

2026 looking brighter for European property investment

The muted, uneven recovery in European investment continued in Q3, with indicators suggesting this will persist in Q4. The outlook for 2026 looks brighter, with lower interest rates providing a key...

25th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025)

Softening rental growth and steady yields weighed on capital value growth in many markets in Q3. And this is likely to continue, with our Capital Value Lead Indicator pointing to a further slowdown in...

24th November 2025 · 0 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q4 2025

All-property capital values were flat in Q3 and our CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests more of the same in Q4 and into early 2026. Lagging appraisal adjustments and still-high financing costs...

20th November 2025 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025)

Commercial property valuations held steady in Q3, supported by lower equity dividend yields despite higher government bond yields. Looking ahead, there is limited scope for falls in government bond...

19th November 2025 · 0 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Key client questions from our commercial property in 2026 roundtables

Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most...

18th November 2025 · 6 mins read