Europe Commercial Property Update A tough year ahead for Prague retail Prague retail saw an unexpected rental uplift at the end of 2022, ending three years of decline. But we think that will be a false dawn and expect that a subdued consumer outlook will combine with... 13th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office slowdown underway Slowing jobs growth, a tech-driven slump in net absorption and a strong supply pipeline underline our view that Dublin prime office rents will fall slightly this year. This would mark a sharp... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Surge in property yield helps valuations improve A surge in property yields helped commercial property valuations improve for the first time in two years in the final quarter of 2022. Jumps in alternative asset yields late last year following the... 8th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Revised GDP profile adds to the downside A stronger than expected end to last year only postpones the euro-zone recession in our view. That will weigh slightly more heavily on property performance this year, as all-property rents may now... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The headline CIPS construction index showed a contraction in activity in January, with the housing index seeing a substantial decline. But the forward-looking indicators improved, with future business... 6th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Explaining the surge in yields The rise in yields in the final quarter of last year was larger than that seen at the start of the GFC. While the magnitude of the rise can be explained by the jump in risk-free interest rates, the... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourist rebound no silver bullet for prime retail The reversal of China’s zero-COVID policy means Chinese tourists could return to European high streets sooner than expected. While this should help support occupier demand, it seems unlikely it will... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think the rally in risky assets is on borrowed time The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) Even as investors have pulled back from the market, net lending to property remained positive in December. That may reflect some distressed borrowing as investors looks to boost liquidity in the face... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls to ease in 2023 Yields have continued to surprise on the upside, with the all-property equivalent yield rising by 106bps in the three months to December. That matches the worst months of the GFC, and even though... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish ECB will weigh on euro-zone investment Euro-zone investment contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think further interest rate rises will prolong this weakness throughout much of this year. But we expect a recovery in transactions towards... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
