US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update Strains have eased but banks aren’t out of the woods yet Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. 14th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structural weaknesses weigh on Warsaw office rents After a strong 2022, we expect Warsaw offices to face a more difficult time ahead. Falling employment and hybrid working practices will limit any revival in demand after 2023 and leave rents... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure sector to suffer as savings are exhausted Despite the cost-of-living crisis, the leisure sector did better than expected last year as households used the savings they had built up during the pandemic to boost spending on recreation and... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds In light of the recent flare-up in commercial property related financial distress and news that investors have been rapidly pulling money out of property funds in Europe, we are re-sending this Update... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The risks to banking from commercial property Real estate exposures have not been central to financial developments in Europe over recent weeks, but, as property prices correct after a decade of steady expansion, some strains are likely to emerge... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.) The March headline CIPS Construction PMI reversed some of its surprise jump in February, but it remained in expansionary territory. That was driven by the commercial sector, where strong expectations... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office capital values can’t deny gravity forever London office capital values fell by a relatively modest amount in the second half of last year and monthly data show values stabilised in the first two months of 2023. But that has left London office... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Shallower downturn, but returns to lag Property values fell sharply in Scandinavia and Switzerland last year, but with valuations still stretched and financing set to remain challenging, we think yields will climb higher. And with economic... 4th April 2023 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Milder downturn, slower recovery Emerging Europe has seen less steep falls in values than elsewhere so far, but will not be immune in 2023. Higher interest rates and economic weakness mean these markets will have a challenging year... 31st March 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Yields stabilise, but banking crisis may slow recovery Yields have stabilised since the start of the year, with the 8bps rise in equivalent yields over January and February much smaller than the 64bps increase over the final two months of 2022. And with... 30th March 2023 · 8 mins read
