UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Nov.) Total employment growth in November across our 30 metros was weak compared with the rest of 2023, growing by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted. On average, office-based jobs contracted for the... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update A look back on our key calls for 2023 While SVB’s collapse in March and sharper rises in interest rates led to larger-than-expected falls in commercial real estate (CRE) values, our expectations for sector and regional winners were... 3rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 10th January 2024, 4:30PM GMT We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Austin and Miami tumble down the apartment rankings We expect apartment markets to perform poorly over the next two years, with all our 17 metros seeing capital values lower at the end of 2025 than they are now. However, there will be substantial... 2nd January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Where will new apartment supply fall fastest? We expect the sharpest fall in apartment completions in 2025-26 in Boston, Denver, NYC and Seattle. Those cities will also be joined by Sunbelt markets where oversupply is already denting rents... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris the weak link among French logistics markets A relatively resilient economy and tight supply will support French industrial rent growth in the next two years. However, regional markets stand to benefit most. Availability is greater, and rising... 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook West coast markets facing another beating in 2024 The performance of the 17 office markets we forecast will continue to be driven by structural factors over the next couple of years. That points to further weakness in the six major markets, where... 20th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail revival to stall after 2024 In Warsaw, more favourable economic conditions will support retail spending and prime rents in the short term. But from 2025, faster rises in online shopping than elsewhere in Europe will cause the... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower economic recovery is a risk for retail rents High interest rates have taken longer to percolate through the economy than we expected, but we now think consumer spending will contract over the next six months. That poses a risk to our retail rent... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov) Net lending on commercial real estate by banks resurged in November, despite signs from other data that lenders would continue to pull back from real estate lending. That said, the $4.4bn of net... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit value falls in 2024 Persistent weak growth and elevated (albeit soon-to-be falling) interest rates continue to spell trouble for real estate values. We see NOI growth softening further over the next year as the... 15th December 2023 · 22 mins read
