UK Commercial Property Outlook Occupier market outlook weaker; deeper property price correction is the result (Q3 08) There is no immediate end in sight to the commercial property yield correction and, on the back of downgrades to our general economic views since the previous Analyst, we have revised down our... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus West End office rental values set to slump We now expect West End office rental values to fall by 5%y/y this year, by 15% in 2009 and by a further 5% in 2010. This is in spite of the well-documented absence of a significant pipeline of new... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What are the prospects for lending to commercial property? In a plausible central scenario, the amount of debt that banks make available to the commercial property market will fall by more than two-thirds, from a total of over £300bn between 2003 and 2007 to... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Secondary property still set to do worse than prime To date, secondary capital values have fallen by less than prime. As the economy deteriorates, however, we continue to believe that the fundamental desirability of prime buildings will mean that they... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have commercial property lending data remained so strong? According to the Bank of England (BoE), the net increase in the stock of loans on banks’ balance sheets secured against commercial property was £9bn in Q1. That was the second highest quarterly total... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review - full year 2007 The headline results from the De Montfort University Review of the UK Commercial Property Lending Market for 2007 have already been widely disseminated, and confirmed anecdotal reports of a sharp... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Too soon to look for the trough in commercial property prices (Q2 08) Our commercial property forecasts are broadly unchanged. We still expect a total fall in capital values of between 25% and 30%. In other words, according to IPD data which now show that capital values... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Do commercial property derivatives have predictive power? Commercial property derivative (CPD) pricing data provide a useful steer on the general mood and sentiment of the commercial property investment fraternity. 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the property investment market cycle changed? We believe that debt-backed retail and international investors will remain a permanent fixture in the UK’s commercial property market. Their presence will make abrupt yield shifts, like that which we... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for hotel property? Our macroeconomic forecasts suggest that after being one of the best performing property sectors over recent years and the “best of the worst” in 2008, weak economic growth in the UK, Euro-zone and US... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights vulnerability of retail rental values to falls In a Commercial Property Data Response on Monday, we reported on the aggregate balances from the RICS Commercial Market Survey for 2008Q1, which were worryingly downbeat. Now, having had more time to... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The economic damage from the other property crash The weakening housing market has diverted attention from the crash which has already occurred in the commercial property market. But the commercial property downturn could hit the wider economy by... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The outlook for leisure property returns We expect the leisure property sector to be the only commercial property sub-sector to report positive returns in 2008. This will end 12 years of underperformance. Over the next few years, we expect... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have real office rental values fallen over time? Although there have clearly been major cycles, real all-office rental values are currently 48% lower than their level in 1975. (See Chart 1.) But against the general backdrop of an increasingly... 22nd February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak economy to prompt rental downturn and extend soft returns into 2009 (Q1 08) Until recently, we were optimistic that the commercial property correction would be short-lived and driven solely by a yield shift. But we have revised down our forecasts for GDP growth in 2008 and... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Real estate equities down 40%: will property prices follow suit? In our view, there is no reason to believe that just because real estate equity prices have fallen by 40% since the start of 2007 IPD capital values will eventually fall by a similar amount. In fact... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
