Europe Commercial Property Focus The outlook for office markets in European financial centres Of the four main financial hubs of Europe, we think it is Paris that will deliver the best total returns for offices. An annual average of around minus 10% over the next two years will be better than... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falling currencies add to rental value gloom in emerging Europe As well as facing a deep and painful recession, occupiers in emerging Europe have been hit by falling currencies, increasing the burden of rental payments denominated in euros or dollars. While there... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What do recent policy initiatives mean for property? In our view, neither Government intervention in the banking sector nor quantitative easing (QE) is likely to alter the subdued outlook for commercial property lending. Not only will gross new lending... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political tensions point to higher property yields in emerging Europe The collapse of the Czech government on Tuesday night signals that the crisis in emerging Europe has entered a new phase in which political risks will come to the fore. The economic implications may... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the medium-term outlook for hotels still relatively favourable? We continue to believe that IPD hotel total returns will be worse than the all-property average in 2009. However, in recognition of the changed economic circumstances, by contrast with what we... 13th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Recession to take a larger toll on rental values across the euro-zone The rapid deterioration in the euro-zone economic outlook over the past three or four months has left our existing rental value forecasts looking too optimistic. Indeed, taking the euro-zone as a... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone risk-free rates: are German bund yields the right measure? In our analysis of euro-zone commercial property markets, we base our analysis of valuations on a comparison between property yields and the yield on a 10-year German bund, regardless of whether that... 19th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Falling rents to become the key driver of the correction this year (Q1 09) The economic outlook has deteriorated even further over the past three months. As a result, we now expect GDP to contract by 3% this year and by a further 1% in 2010. Accordingly, we have downgraded... 17th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update West End rents suffer most in 2008; the outlook is even bleaker We have long expected commercial property rental values to fall and, in our view, the decline of almost 1.5%y/y in 2008 is just the tip of the iceberg. With GDP set to shrink by 3% this year and by 1%... 3rd February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returns in Emerging Europe more vulnerable to the industrial slump The collapse in industrial production that has been seen across Europe suggests that the economic downturn is rapidly gathering speed. This is bad news for property investors. In our view, investors... 16th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update December not the turning point for investment market activity Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property: are we underestimating small country risk? Over the next two years, we expect the best performing euro-zone commercial property markets to be Greece, Finland and Portugal. All are forecast to deliver better total returns than core markets such... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review, mid-year 2008 The latest De Montfort University report on bank lending to commercial property, if anything, only adds to the gloom hanging over the sector. What’s more, since it relates only to the first half of... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
Western European interest rates and bond yields set to tumble (Q1 2009) Much of Europe faces a year of contracting GDP, falling profits and rising unemployment in 2009 and, perhaps 2010. In the Euro-zone, we expect a widespread contraction in GDP, but, with the exception... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker pound will not prompt a surge in overseas investment The depreciation of the pound has been one of the few positives for the UK commercial property market over the past year. After all, for overseas investors, the pound’s fall has made UK property far... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe to underperform the Euro-zone (Q1 2009) With very few exceptions, total returns in noneuro European commercial property markets are, on average, forecast to be negative in 2009 and 2010, before recovering in 2011 and beyond. (See Charts 1... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
