Europe Commercial Property Update Lower office take-up volumes in store for Germany On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rental value outlook brightest in Russia and Turkey Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors shun Emerging Europe in the first quarter Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why leisure property is set to outperform Leisure property will not be immune to the weak economy in 2012 but, over a three-year horizon, there is cause for optimism. Indeed, our upgraded forecast is that leisure total returns will average at... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A brighter outlook for Oslo office rents? Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) The commercial property sector saw further negative net lending flows in April. And given the weak economy and lenders’ still-high exposure to the sector, it is hard to see any improvement in lending... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values on track for 6% fall this year All-property capital values edged lower in April and the annual rate of change has now dropped to minus 0.6%. A simple extrapolation from recent figures points to a fall in capital values for 2012 as... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgium v the Netherlands: where is the rental value outlook best? For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GOEF liquidations dampen medium-term European property outlook In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rally in Bucharest office yields be reversed? The compression in office yields in Bucharest seen over the past two years is hard to reconcile with weak financial service sector activity, and the implied weakening in occupier demand. Therefore, we... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Relapse into recession will extend capital value falls There have been no material changes to the outlook for the UK economy since the previous Analyst and with the double dip in capital values that we have been expecting now evident, we have not altered... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have non-prime yields passed their trough? For the first time since mid-2009, IPD reported that in Q1 2012 yields on lower quality commercial property increased. Not least because of higher distressed loan work-outs, we would be very surprised... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How is the London office development pipeline holding up? In recent quarters, Central London office vacancy rates have edged higher and the amount of space under construction and set for completion over 2012-13 has risen. This is despite the lack of pre-lets... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
