UK Commercial Property Update

West End sees refurbishment boom

The latest crane survey reported a surge in new central London office starts in Q1, which seems poorly timed given a large existing pipeline and waning demand. However a closer look shows that West...

7th June 2023 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (May)

Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home...

7th June 2023 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 23)

6th June 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Manufacturing headwinds for German industrial rents

Early 2023 data revealed that the German industrial market has slowed considerably following the exuberance of a year ago. And looking ahead the outlook is not much brighter. We were already...

5th June 2023 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

ULI Consensus Spring 2023: Consensus forecasts under-estimate the pain to come

It comes as no surprise to see a sharp downgrade to consensus forecasts given the combined impact of the regional banking crisis and growing office sector distress. But despite those downgrades, our...

2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed...

1st June 2023 · 8 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Prices edge lower as recession weighs on demand

Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and...

1st June 2023 · 15 mins read

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Odds look stacked against risky assets

Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think...

1st June 2023 · 12 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CEE yields set to rise further

In contrast to the deceleration across the rest of Europe, the rise in CEE yields in Q1 was bigger than in Q4, driven predominantly by the industrial sector. As the yield gap with the euro-zone is...

1st June 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to Commercial Property (Apr.)

1st June 2023 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Prices (May 23)

House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way...

1st June 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)

With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze...

1st June 2023 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

US Metro Employment (Apr.)

Total employment growth reached a solid 0.7% 3m/3m on average in April for the second consecutive month, led by Boston, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Orlando. But for office-based jobs, the poor...

31st May 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Valuations continue to improve but remain stretched

European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets...

31st May 2023 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

High immigration helps explain record rent rise

High net immigration helps explain why rental growth accelerated to its fastest pace on record last year. Immigration won’t be as high this year, adding to the reasons to think that rental growth has...

30th May 2023 · 3 mins read