US Commercial Property Update What is REIT sub-sector performance telling us? The partial recovery in REIT prices since their late March trough gives further support to our view that all-property capital value falls will not exceed 10% this year. But, with data centres, single... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1) Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have since deteriorated and... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REIT price falls consistent with a 5%-10% value drop The nearly 40% peak-to-trough fall in US REIT prices points to a fall of around 5%-10% in direct real estate capital values, providing this proves to be a relatively short-lived recession. At a sector... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Forecasting US Commercial Property This Focus is a reference guide for clients of our new US Commercial Property service. It outlines the key pillars of our forecasting approach, updating previous methodological work from our... 17th March 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does COVID-19 mean for commercial real estate? The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook Don’t expect another roaring ‘20s, even after virus fears fade This is the first edition of our annual Long-Term Asset Allocation Outlook. It covers the outlook for asset returns over the next decade, and is designed to complement the standard Asset Allocation... 4th March 2020 · 20 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What’s debt got to do with it? The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Six key calls for US commercial property We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment... 28th January 2020 · 18 mins read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is central to its economic performance, its demand for many materials and the stability of its financial system. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers... 9th December 2019 · 41 mins read
China Economics Weekly Will residency reforms revive the property market? The government’s plans to make it easier for rural migrants in small cities to acquire urban residency permits have raised hopes of a revival in property sales. But the nationwide impact will probably... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big is the threat of zombie malls in Europe? Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita and tighter planning... 3rd May 2018 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this Focus, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer the key questions on... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
