Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s economy to beat expectations this year The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy came through the Omicron virus wave in good shape and, given the recent surge in oil prices, we expect above-consensus growth of 6... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro vs. Gutiérrez This week Colombia's Liberal Party offered its backing to market-friendly Federico Gutiérrez – who currently trails left-wing Gustavo Petro in the polls – ahead of next month's presidential election... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Surging commodity prices & Argentine subsidies The recent surge in commodity prices has given a boost to most Latin American currencies and it is generally seen as good news for the region. But not all economies will benefit. Chile's external... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Oil rally to help Colombia’s twin deficits The recent surge in oil prices means that Colombia’s twin current account and budget deficits are unlikely to be a major concern over the next couple of quarters. However, it will still require a... 3rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) The stronger-than-expected 4.3% q/q surge in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 took output back to its pre-pandemic trend, confirming the recovery has been one of the quickest in the region. Although we still... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Regional inflation troubles, Costa Rica votes The recent batch of January inflation data across Latin America made for grim reading and, despite the hawkish response by central banks, inflation rates will remain high until much later this year... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
