Europe Economics Update Ireland’s election throws up longer-term risks Ireland’ general election result does not change our view on the near-term outlook for the economy, which should maintain a decent pace this year and next. But it does raise questions about the longer... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update No upside for Dublin retail rents While the risk of a no deal Brexit has diminished, lingering uncertainty and structural headwinds are likely to put downward pressure on prime retail rents in Dublin over the next two years. 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q1 2019) Economic growth in Ireland appears to have slowed to little more than a crawl, which is likely to in part reflect concerns about the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit. We estimate that, if the UK left... 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returns from Dublin offices to slip further In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q4 2018) Ireland’s Q4 GDP data, released today, show that the economy slowed towards the end of last year. But timelier indicators suggest that, despite rising uncertainty about Brexit and the wider euro-zone... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker retail outlook to hold Dublin rents With consumer spending growth slowing and the boost to households from rising house prices fading, we think that prime high street rents in Dublin are likely to plateau over the next couple of years. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pick-up in Dublin industrial rental growth won’t last Industrial rental growth in Dublin has accelerated this year. But as softer economic growth ahead dampens occupier demand, this increase in rental growth will prove temporary. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office rents set to fall on rising vacancy Dublin’s large office pipeline has started to push vacancy higher, in spite of strong take-up volumes. As occupier demand softens, further increases in vacancy will start to put downward pressure on... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland is faring better than GDP data suggest Ireland’s GDP contracted in Q1, but this tells us next to nothing about the underlying state of the economy. Other indicators are much more encouraging and, despite some big risks to the outlook, we... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
