Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Irish commercial property values reached a floor? The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The contraction in GDP in the first quarter of this year is a reminder that, while Ireland has made some progress in restoring competitiveness and regaining the confidence of the bond markets, it is... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why and how will the euro-zone break up? Recent developments in the euro-zone have supported our view that a limited form of break-up will commence this year with the exit of Greece. But there are clear risks of a bigger break-up. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Contagion is still the key danger The direct economic and financial effects of a Greek exit from the euro-zone need not be catastrophic. The key question remains whether the policymakers can prevent contagion effects from prompting a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German ZEW (May) The provisional Q1 euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession – temporarily. But the region remains worryingly reliant on growth in Germany and a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read