Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rebound in non-energy inflation in September will reassure the Riksbank that it is right to be planning to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. We expect underlying inflation to continue... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Sweden Private Prod. (Aug.) September’s Swiss inflation data provided further evidence that despite strong GDP growth, domestic price pressures remain very weak. And with the franc’s recent appreciation dampening imported... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s falls in the Swiss and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs leave them still pointing to strong growth in the sector. But it is in Sweden that price pressures seem to be strongest. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for 2018 hikes in Sweden and Iceland building There are still no signs that domestic political uncertainty is weighing on the Swedish economy, so we continue to expect the Riksbank to raise rates in December. Meanwhile, rising inflation... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Sep.) September’s further rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator suggests that neither uncertainty about the domestic political environment nor worries about rising trade protectionism have damaged the... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ousting of Swedish PM won’t upend plans for rate hikes Today’s ouster of Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven might seem to justify yet another delay to the Riskbank’s policy normalisation plans. But the economy should continue to perform well and might... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank has lift off, SNB to remain grounded The Norges Bank’s “dovish hike” this week caused the krone to weaken, and we think that this is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left policy unchanged, and we suspect that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although CPIF inflation was above target in August, the further decline in non-energy inflation will worry the Riksbank. If it remains soft, then the Bank will probably keep rates on hold until early... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s political upheaval won’t alter fiscal outlook While Sweden looks set for a period of political uncertainty, the broad fiscal consensus among mainstream politicians suggests that, whoever takes power, the near-term economic outlook will not be... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish election not a game-changer The latest opinion polls suggests that Sunday’s general election in Sweden will be a close call. But the outcome of the vote is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for the economy or monetary... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes favour the industrial sector Rates of rental and capital value growth are set to slow in Scandinavia and Switzerland, but Copenhagen industrial property still looks attractive. Total returns will be higher in Emerging Europe... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to raise rates in December Despite the more dovish tone of today’s policy announcement, the Riksbank looks likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
