Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to (finally) turn more dovish next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday next week, we expect it to adopt a more dovish stance and to slash its forecasts for the economy... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to reach record low; DKK “trumps” central target After recently changing our Norges Bank forecast, we now expect the NOK/EUR to fall to a record-low of 10.50 by end-2019. Meanwhile, next week we expect a raft of Q2 GDP data to show that while growth... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss bonds soar; Norges Bank hawkish no more Safe-haven demand has seen Swiss bond yields plumb new depths and has continued to boost the franc. We think that it is only a matter of time before the SNB cuts interest rates further into negative... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to shift through the gears The pick-up in FX interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks is likely to be the first step towards a rate cut. But predicting when the interventions will be dialled down and the... 15th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to cut interest rates to -0.50% by year-end Having seen investors move in line with our previously uber-dovish view on Swedish interest rates in recent months, we now expect the Riksbank to cut the repo rate to -0.50% by the end of the year. 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (July) The fall in Swedish inflation in July provides further confirmation, if it were needed, that the Riksbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo rate at its next meeting, on 5th September... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One more hike by the Norges Bank; SNB to cut further Investors have moved in line with our previously uber-dovish forecasts for the SNB and the Riksbank in recent months. Meanwhile, although further tightening is in the pipeline in Norway, investors are... 8th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Domestic weakness to weigh on the Swedish krona It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) While core inflation in Sweden edged up once again in June, we expect weak domestic demand to weigh on underlying price pressures over the second half of the year and into 2020. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
