Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss economy in for a tough few months

This week's data support our view that the Swiss economic recovery has shifted into reverse this quarter. Meanwhile, next week’s data are likely to show that Sweden’s economy expanded relatively...

29th January 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook

At the front of the pack

Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro...

27th January 2021 · 13 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Slow vaccine rollout key risk to the outlook

In a quiet week for data, the Norges Bank left its key policy rate at a record low of zero, where we suspect it will stay until at least 2023. Meanwhile, we think the extension of some virus measures...

22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Rate cut more likely than not in Denmark

Another week another set of data which add to the signs that Norway’s and Sweden’s economies ended Q4 on a decent note and outperformed even the best-performing major euro-zone economies in 2020...

15th January 2021 · 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack

Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies

The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That...

14th January 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

In store for a bumpy start to 2021

The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic...

8th January 2021 · 6 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Dec.)

Swiss inflation is likely to climb out of deflationary territory over the coming months. However, it is still set to remain very weak over the coming years, and does not change the picture for the SNB...

5th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB pleads “not guilty”; Denmark to close down

The designation of Switzerland as a “currency manipulator” by the US Treasury means that the SNB will enter 2021 on the economic equivalent of the naughty step. However, we suspect that the incoming...

18th December 2020 · 6 mins read

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Scandi & Swiss: Property recovery to prove gradual

The positive news on the vaccine has improved the economic outlook and should allow output in the Swiss and Scandinavian economies to recover to their pre-virus levels in late 2021. This will support...

17th December 2020 · 18 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label

This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency...

17th December 2020 · 3 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack

SNB not out of the woods yet

As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc...

11th December 2020 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Riksbank divided; SNB & Norges Bank to hold rates

The minutes from the Riksbank’s November meeting confirmed that a repo rate cut is not completely off the table. However, the vaccine has brightened the outlook next year, and we no longer forecast a...

11th December 2020 · 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate

While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods...

4th December 2020 · 6 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Nov.)

The current period of deflation in Switzerland will start to ease in early 2021, and the headline rate is likely to edge back into positive territory by March. However, this won’t be a game-changer...

2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) & Switzerland GDP (Q3)

The strong set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics in November suggests that the industrial rebound gathered momentum in Q4, in keeping with the picture in German industry. This...

1st December 2020 · 2 mins read