Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2025) Growth slowed significantly in Switzerland in the second quarter as tariff front-running eased. The economy is likely to expand only slowly the next couple of quarters as high US tariffs and elevated... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on US tariffs on Switzerland With Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in the US trying to head off the 39% tariff, this note answers some key questions on the topic. Overall, we think Switzerland has limited room to offer... 6th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariffs will slow Swiss growth, but not halt it We think the surprisingly high tariff rate on Switzerland of 39% that the US announced yesterday is likely be negotiated down in future and, importantly, pharmaceutical goods still appear to be exempt... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Headline inflation rose slightly in Switzerland in June, but we expect it will remain around zero, or just below, for the rest of the year. Persistently weak inflation is likely to encourage the SNB... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss prime property values to recover sooner than most A comparatively attractive spread over risk-free rates and solid investor sentiment mean there is scope for Swiss prime property yields to fall further than in most other European markets this year... 26th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June 2025) The SNB decision to cut by just 25bp today means that it has avoided negative rates for the time being. But we think that continued deflation over the coming months will prompt policymakers to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
