Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy-driven inflation won’t force the SNB’s hand We think that the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. While higher energy prices have pushed inflation higher, underlying price pressures are weak and inflation is set to... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Franc to rally when AI bubble bursts The bursting of the AI bubble that we suspect will happen next year, and the resulting pick-up in safe-haven demand, would most likely cause the franc to appreciate against the euro. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2026) The surge in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q2 shows that the Swiss economy shrugged off the increase in energy prices. With timelier survey data looking strong too, the economy looks set to put in... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Feeling the heat In the near term, Europe's summer heatwave is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on GDP but poses an upside risk to inflation through its effect on food, electricity and gas prices. Nevertheless... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB rates will remain unchanged, all eyes on the franc The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and we think it will keep rates on hold over the next couple of years. Its commentary shows that the Bank is confident that the current monetary... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to look through energy price shock Despite the ECB’s rate hike today, we think the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. Higher energy prices have already pushed up energy inflation but overall inflation remains... 11th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update No need for SNB to respond to energy shock Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response SNB Monetary Policy decision (March 2026) The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and nudged up its inflation forecast trivially. Otherwise, its commentary underlines the Bank’s willingness to intervene to limit upward pressure... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q4 2025) The 0.2% q/q rise in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q4 was a bit smaller than we expected (+0.5%). This may be partly because the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland by the US was only reduced to 15%... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) Swiss inflation remained at 0.1% in January and we expect it to undershoot the consensus forecast and stay around zero for the rest of the year. Combined with the strength of the franc, we think this... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
