Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Romanian retail be a good medium-term bet? Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks step up to the plate Central banks in Emerging Europe are starting to respond to the economic downturn that has spread across the region. Interest rates were cut this month in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, and... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic nears the zero-bound The Czech National Bank cut interest rates to just 0.25% earlier today and suggested that, should further stimulus be necessary, this would probably take the form of intervention in the foreign... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Domestic austerity continues to bite A raft of GDP data released this month showed that growth slowed across most of Emerging Europe in the second quarter. Hungary and the Czech Republic were the worst performing economies, as both sank... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region’s star performers set to lose their shine The slowdown in Emerging Europe in recent months is a sign of things to come, and we expect a number of countries to spend the next year in recession. The most obvious concern on the horizon remains... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal austerity bites in Hungary and the Czech Republic Today’s Q2 GDP data paint a picture of weakening growth, with Hungary joining the Czech Republic in recession. For now, the drop in output in both countries seems to have been driven as much by... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian political tensions put FX reserve buffers at risk The National Bank of Romania (NBR) appears to have stepped up intervention in the FX market to defend the leu following the recent bout of political turmoil. For now, FX reserve coverage looks... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can the bond rally last? Emerging European bonds have rallied over the past couple of months. In the case of Hungary and Turkey we are doubtful that it can be sustained, but in the Czech Republic and Poland, it may have... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank could cut rates once more this year Although the Czech National Bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold today, we think the weakness of the economy could prompt one further 25bp rate cut before the end of this year. 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian President’s referendum survival adds to uncertainty Paradoxically, the apparent survival of Romania’s President in Sunday’s referendum could pave the way for a protracted period of political instability. This is likely to take its toll on the financial... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A disappointing Q2 Deepening problems in the euro-zone continue to take their toll on Emerging Europe. Most of the region’s economies appear to have weakened in Q2. Even the region’s strongest performers, Russia and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
