Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy weakened a touch at the start of Q3, but we still think it’s likely that the recovery will resume over the rest of the year. Indeed, there was... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow property about to turn a corner, albeit, slowly The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe Preliminary Q2 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due later this week are likely to show an encouraging uptick in growth in Central Europe. Meanwhile, output in the region’s largest economy, Russia... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks to remain net buyers of gold Central banks resumed their gold purchases in June, after having turned net sellers in May, with Russia and China once again particularly active. While gold demand from the official sector was... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 7.2% y/y in July suggests that – barring an upside surprise in this month’s CPI figure – the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens at the start of Q3 The sharp rise in the aggregate EM PMI in July suggests that after a brief pause in Q2, the recovery in EM industry resumed at the start of the third quarter. The improvement was driven largely by... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June suggest that output probably contracted at the same pace in Q2 as it did in Q1. Industry has remained the key driver of the economy, but this has been offset by weak... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
