Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy isn’t running into capacity constraints yet We don’t find compelling evidence to support the argument that the slowdown in Russia’s economy in Q3 was the result of mounting capacity constraints. In contrast, our view is that there is still a... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3) Russian GDP growth in Q3 was softer than expected, at 1.8% y/y, and we have revised down our growth forecast for 2017 as whole as a result (to 1.8%). However, we expect growth to pick up next year and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The fall in Russian inflation to 2.7% y/y in October means another 25bp cut at the central bank’s Board meeting in December is highly likely. Inflation has probably reached a trough, but we expect the... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hints at larger easing cycle The Russian central bank statement, which accompanied today’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25bp, suggests that policymakers have become increasingly confident that inflation will remain low and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole probably came in at around 2.0% y/y, which would be a little weaker than in Q2 (2.5% y/y). But the economy remains in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong returns in prospect for Moscow offices The Moscow office market is showing signs of greater balance. With the potential for rental growth, and further falls in prime yields, several years of double-digit total returns could be on the cards... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The drop in Russian inflation to a fresh low of 3.0% y/y in September means that another cut in interest rates is all but guaranteed at this month’s CBR Board meeting. The fact that core inflation... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that GDP growth may have eased a little in Q3, to around 2% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in Q2. But that would still be a reasonably strong pace of expansion, and it... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank stays cautious, but more rate cuts loom Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, struck a predictably cautious tone at today’s postmeeting press conference. But the large amount of spare capacity in the economy is likely to keep... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) Russian inflation fell to a post-communist low of 3.3% y/y in August and we expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank’s 4% target over our forecast horizon. We had thought the Bank... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
