Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation to 2.5% y/y in March probably marks the start of a gradual pick-up over the next few months as the effects of the weaker ruble feed through to consumer prices. But with... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures The policy response across Central and Eastern Europe has become more aggressive over the past few weeks and the region’s central banks have joined a growing list of those that have started purchasing... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank likely to lower rates soon The Russian central bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today made it one of the few major central banks that has yet to cut rates to support the economy in response to the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we facing a re-run of the 2014-16 oil price crash? The recent oil price shock has invoked comparisons with 2014-16, when prices fell to similarly low levels and large EMs – notably Brazil and Russia – entered crises. But this time around, we think... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia The recent fall in the ruble will help to cushion the hit to the Russian government’s revenues resulting from the plunge in oil prices, but it will come at a cost to corporates that have large... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the collapse in oil prices The tailspin in global oil prices will push Russia’s current account and budget balances into deficit but shouldn’t create severe strains in the economy. It would probably take a steeper fall in... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 2.3% y/y in February leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle this month. Although market expectations for easing have been pared... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) January’s batch of Russian activity data suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 1.8% y/y. While some of the recent props to growth have started to fade, policy support is likely to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank keeps door open to more easing The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that, following today’s 25bp interest rate cut to 6.00%, further easing lies in store. We maintain our view... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Russian inflation to just 2.4% y/y in January primarily reflected the unwinding impact of last year’s VAT hike. But it will probably be enough to prompt the central... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s batch of Russian activity data suggests that GDP growth in Q4 was broadly unchanged from Q3’s 1.7% y/y, but the economy appears to have lost steam at the end of the quarter. That... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
