Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary. We think that these may well include a programme of …
16th December 2014
December’s flash euro-zone PMI survey suggested that the euro-zone economy probably lost steam in the fourth quarter and maintained the pressure on the ECB to deliver a major policy boost at its next policy meeting in January. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for debt renegotiation and fiscal loosening. … Are markets …
15th December 2014
It is tempting to think that a prolonged period of mild deflation in the euro-zone would be terrible news for equities. After all, Japan’s stock market generally fared poorly for much of the time between 1999 and 2012, when the general price level in that …
We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the risk of deflation, supporting our view that the ECB …
12th December 2014
Euro-zone industrial data for October and employment figures for Q3 confirmed that, even before the resurgence of the Greek crisis and associated political and economic uncertainty, underlying economic activity was very weak. … Euro-zone Industrial …
Historically low bond yields and a gradually improving rental growth outlook should mean that prime office yields set new lows in this cycle. However, in the absence of frenzied lending on Danish real estate and above-trend growth, the retail and …
11th December 2014
Ireland’s small gain in GDP in Q3 leaves it on track to expand by close to 5% this year. But the published data may exaggerate the underlying strength of the economy. … Ireland GDP …
The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when it meets next week. … Swedish CPI …
While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to help with this, but the key policy tool will continue …
The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when it meets next week. … Swedish CPI (Nov. …
The Icelandic Government’s preparations to scale back capital controls early next year certainly represent a positive first step towards lifting the restrictions. However, we remain cautious at this early stage since nothing has been announced and there …
10th December 2014
Contagion effects from Greece’s latest crisis have so far been reassuringly limited. But that may not last and the episode is a reminder that even those economies which have cut their budget deficits dramatically are not immune from political instability …
While the recent rise in Spanish house prices is another encouraging sign for the economy, we expect the housing recovery to be extremely slow. The Spanish economy still needs to undergo a painful rebalancing towards exports to ensure a sustained revival. …
9th December 2014
The two-month extension to Greece’s EU programme, agreed yesterday by euro-zone finance ministers, was expected given recent wrangling over the Greek Budget. But the further austerity it could bring poses risks for the Greek economic recovery. And the …
The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems increasingly likely that prime property yields can continue …
8th December 2014
October’s modest rise in German industrial production suggests that the benefits of a weaker euro are so far being offset by weak demand in Germany and the rest of the euro-zone and bodes ill for GDP in the fourth quarter. … German Industrial Production …
The rise in the euro during the ECB’s press conference last week apparently reflected disappointment that President Draghi did not provide more explicit signals that quantitative easing (QE) is coming. But we don’t think he could have been much more …
5th December 2014
The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q3 offered little encouragement that the region’s lacklustre economic recovery is about to pick up any meaningful momentum. … Euro-zone GDP Breakdown …
Iceland’s economy rebounded in Q3 after contracting for two consecutive quarters, led by a surge in investment. Although the quarterly data are very volatile, this expansion suggests that Iceland is continuing to recover gradually. … Iceland GDP …
Iceland’s economy rebounded in Q3 after contracting for two consecutive quarters, led by a surge in investment. Although the quarterly data are very volatile, this expansion suggests that Iceland is continuing to recover gradually. … Iceland GDP (Q3 …
Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless, with euro-zone bond yields set to stay lower for longer, …
4th December 2014
ECB President Mario Draghi could hardly have sent clearer signals today that the central bank will launch a programme of quantitative easing very soon, probably in January. But we doubt that the policy will be big and effective enough to revive the …
The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that oil prices stabilise, the period of falling prices should …
3rd December 2014
The new Swedish Government lost a key parliamentary vote on its Budget today, throwing politics in the country into turmoil and raising the possibility of fresh elections. But the potential upheaval poses less of a risk to the Swedish economy than does …
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to launch a full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme this week or in January. But the political and economic limitations on the policy’s size and effects suggest that it is unlikely to revive the euro-zone …
November’s final composite PMI was revised down from the flash estimate and provided more evidence that the euro-zone economy has remained weak in Q4. … Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales …
Q3’s Swiss GDP figures suggested that the economy is still holding up well against the twin pressures of euro-zone weakness and the strong franc. But the Swiss National Bank may have more work to do to protect its currency ceiling and head off deflation. …
All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in October, but Portugal is expected to miss its target for 2014 as a whole. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
2nd December 2014
Recent cuts to our Bund yield forecasts reflect our view that the euro-zone economy will struggle to gain traction over the next year or two. Yet, on balance, by creating the scope for property yields to edge lower still, they are likely to give a further …
The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. … Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for …
The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to curb the appreciation of their currencies, protect …
1st December 2014
Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in oil prices. This may provide a modest boost to activity …
Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake further easing. … ECB to join Bank of Japan in …
28th November 2014
This weekend the Swiss public will probably reject a proposal to force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to increase its gold holdings. Nonetheless, a surprise “yes” would provide a significant boost to the gold price and might also undermine the SNB’s …
The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should not conclude that the exchange rate has done its job for …
Polish retail sales growth will continue to improve as labour market conditions strengthen. While this will support further retailer expansion, the volume of shopping centre space being developed and extended will dampen rental growth, particularly …
The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment …
The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for policymakers to be complacent about deflation risks. …
The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for policymakers to be complacent about deflation risks. … …
It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big ? While we think that the contingencies for QE set out by President Draghi have …
27th November 2014
November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this still does not seem to be affecting wage growth. … German …
October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
November’s EC business and consumer survey did nothing to relieve the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide more policy support to the euro-zone economy in the form of a full-blown quantitative easing programme. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
