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Stockholm offices are forecast to produce solid rent rises in 2015. Coupled with prime yields falling to 4%, this will drive double-digit capital growth this year. … Stockholm offices capital growth to reach double figures this …
28th April 2015
Revivals in Spain’s and Ireland’s housing markets should help to support their wider economic recoveries. While Spain’s housing recovery is likely to be slow, Ireland’s is already going strong. This has prompted concerns of another bubble in Ireland, but …
27th April 2015
Friday’s Eurogroup meeting did not appear to result in any further progress towards a solution to the Greek crisis. While Greece has found a bit more money down the back of the sofa (or in state entities), there are still no indications of how Greece …
24th April 2015
April’s rise in the Ifo German Business Climate Indicator (BCI) suggests that economic conditions are holding up despite the Greek crisis and comes as a relief after falls in the ZEW and PMI surveys. … German Ifo Survey …
The continued deterioration in China’s manufacturing sector signalled by early business surveys for April is disappointing, but the prices of key industrial metals have already factored in a lot of bad news from this source. Perhaps more worrying are …
23rd April 2015
April’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that fears over Greece might already be starting to dampen economic growth in the region, offsetting any boost from loose monetary policy and the weakness of the euro. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The ongoing uncertainty and legal suits over the wind-down of a small Austrian provincial bank might seem like the least of the euro-zone’s current concerns. But the wind-down of Hypo Alpe Adria’s bad bank may well set a precedent for the new …
22nd April 2015
The European Commission today charged Gazprom with abusing its dominant position in Eastern Europe’s gas market. In this Update , we answer five key questions about the decision and the implications for both Russia and the rest of Emerging Europe. … The …
Better economic growth prospects in Denmark mean the outlook for the industrial market has turned positive. However, yields remain elevated relative to both the office sector and the other Nordic markets. We therefore expect prime Danish industrial assets …
Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. … Can Greece default and stay in the …
21st April 2015
Vacancy rates across Germany have edged lower over the past year. Consistent with that, rental values have also been moving up. Given that vacancy rates are now generally below their pre-crisis troughs, development activity is moderate, and economic …
April’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that fears over Greece are starting to dent confidence in the German economic recovery. … German ZEW …
The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both about the chances of Greek exit from the euro …
17th April 2015
The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario Draghi was in a bullish mood at last week’s press …
The nascent recovery in consumer spending in Central Europe is expected to strengthen. Retail property in the region will benefit from improving occupier demand, although we expect the prime end of the market to perform best, which will drive …
16th April 2015
The stock market in the euro-zone is much more attractively valued than in the US based on a comparison of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratios. However, its valuation is much less appealing when a comparison of standard price/earnings (PE) …
The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital controls to avoid a disorderly default and keep the banks …
Dutch consumers have finally started to open their wallets, prompting hopes of a consumer-led economic revival. But even if renewed falls in household spending look unlikely, the combination of the feeble labour and housing market recoveries, households’ …
ECB President Mario Draghi sent a clear signal today that the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic outlook would not result in an early termination of the quantitative easing programme that was only launched last month. … ECB will implement …
15th April 2015
Despite recent positive economic data, the Italian economy is unlikely to rebound strongly this year. Nevertheless, a loosening of credit standards and the fact that real estate loans are now being offloaded by banks should allow yield compression to …
February’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro is still only providing a small boost to the region’s exports. … Euro-zone Trade …
Sweden’s headline inflation rate picked up further in March. But with inflation likely to remain well below target and the underlying rate unchanged, we continue to think that the Riksbank will cut rates further at its late-April meeting. … Swedish …
14th April 2015
Investment has been the weakest link in France’s feeble economic recovery so far. But it is not clear that the French Government’s latest plans will alter this picture dramatically. For that, a sustained rise in business confidence, helped by bolder …
February’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production suggested that industry is starting to feel the benefits of a weaker euro and a lower oil price. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
The opposition Centre Party looks likely to be the largest party in a coalition government after Finland’s general election on 19th April. But the outcome of the election is unlikely to have a major impact on the economic outlook. Most of the major …
13th April 2015
With the ECB’s quantitative easing programme putting upward pressure on German asset prices in particular, some point to a risk of bubbles developing there. We think the greater risk is that such concerns may place limits on the policy support that is …
February’s Italian industrial production data added to signs that the long recession may finally be coming to an end. But the recovery still looks surprisingly slow given the boost provided by falls in the euro exchange rate and the oil price. … Italian …
We have revised our forecasts for euro-zone GDP growth higher to reflect the positive effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro. But growth could slow again next year as those positive forces fade and the deep-seated constraints to growth …
10th April 2015
February’s French industrial data suggested that activity in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy may have gained a little pace at the start of 2015. And the healthy rise in Spanish production suggests that the recovery there continued apace in Q1. … …
The ECB’s quantitative easing programme has got off to a solid start with the Bank buying the planned quantity of assets and financial markets responding positively. And with the recovery seeming to gain pace, there has even been talk that the Bank might …
9th April 2015
Despite decent prospects for German industrial output, logistics capital value growth seems unlikely to outperform the office and retail sectors, or logistics property in other countries. That’s largely because the bulk of yield compression has already …
The recent bout of negative inflation in the euro-zone appears to have contributed to a modest upturn in economic growth. But it would be premature to conclude that deflation will prove to be a good thing for the currency union. … Is deflation good for …
German industrial production and trade data for February offered tentative signs that the economy is benefitting from the weaker exchange rate. But the data seem to confirm that growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture continues to be clouded by the uncertainty surrounding …
8th April 2015
February’s euro-zone retail sales data showed that while the consumer recovery remained fairly strong, it did not pick up further pace. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The anaemic growth outlook for the French economy in 2015 and 2016 does not bode well for a recovery in occupier demand. But increased competition for the best space amongst both tenants and investors should ensure that prime property continues to perform …
Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome this time around given the rude health of the US economy. …
3rd April 2015
The more detailed list of proposed reforms submitted by Greece last week potentially provided the basis for an agreement that will allow it to meet its near-term financial obligations. But the tussles over Greece’s bailout payment are likely to prove a …
The minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 4th and 5th March should help to dampen suggestions that the recent signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy will prompt the ECB to end its quantitative easing (QE) programme before the scheduled …
Recently published data show that Spain, Portugal and France made headway in reducing their general government deficits in 2014. But progress among the peripheral countries at the start of 2015 has been rather more mixed, particularly in Greece. … …
2nd April 2015
A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. … Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial …
While the anticipation and launch of looser unconventional monetary policy in the euro-zone appears to have depressed the yields of bonds issued by the region’s more troubled governments, the boost now appears to have faded and we are not convinced it …
1st April 2015
The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows that the risk is at least being taken seriously. …
The euro-zone economic recovery has gained some pace thanks to a pick-up in consumer spending growth. The annual growth rate of retail sales volumes rose to near a ten-year high in January, due partly to falling prices. And a sharp rise in consumer …
The latest data on euro-zone inflation and unemployment did not lift the threat of a prolonged period of deflation in the currency union. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment …
We expect European natural gas prices to fall this year as greater supply and the impact of lower oil prices more than offset higher demand. … European gas prices heading back …
Greece is running out of time to produce a list of reforms that will satisfy its creditors and secure the additional bail-out payment it requires to meet its near-term financial obligations. But even if it is successful, the much more daunting challenge …
31st March 2015
Irish household debt looks high relative to both international and historical comparisons. Yet servicing costs are low, and rising house prices will boost net worth. Together with the positive economic outlook, that suggests consumption should improve. …
