Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks apause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the endof the year. … Icelandic interest rates on hold, but …
30th September 2015
While the emissions scandal has been responsible for the recent plunge in the share price of Volkswagen Group, the bigger picture is that the share prices of German car manufacturers have been sliding since the spring amid growing concerns about demand …
29th September 2015
It is generally assumed that a UK exit from the EU would lead to a sharp drop in migration, reducing the pool of labour and undermining economic growth. However, a Brexit could lead to a more sensible immigration policy based on skills, rather than …
September’s drop in inflation back below zero for the first time since January highlights that price pressures are very subdued and will add to pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. … German Flash CPI …
This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an uphill struggle in keeping the country’s nascent economic …
September’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. But growth was still fairly slow and we think that the ECB will need to increase its stimulus to provide a further boost to the economy. … EC …
The high level of consumer and business confidence in September added to the recent run of positive data coming from Italy. But strong confidence alone will not be enough to secure a sustained economic recovery. … Rising Italian confidence not enough to …
28th September 2015
The cross-border nature of automotive supply chains means that it is not just Germany that may be affected by the Volkswagen scandal. The Czech Republic also looks exposed. While automotive related production tends to be in peripheral locations rather …
The gradual recovery in the Dutch housing market looks set to continue, supported by rising realdisposable incomes, mortgage lending growth and government policy. This bodes well for bothhousehold spending and investment, suggesting that the wider …
25th September 2015
The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given the importance of the car industry to German output …
August’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued sluggish growth, adding to the evidence that more monetary stimulus from the ECB isnecessary. The run on Greek banks seems to have slowed or even ended, but lending there is likely to …
Political factors pose less risk to the economic outlook in Portugal than in Spain. Nevertheless, the underlying economic outlook for Portugal is weaker, which will weigh on occupier demand in Lisbon. The retail sector could buck the trend however, as …
24th September 2015
The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. … Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to …
The small rise in the German Ifo index in September came as a modestly pleasant surprise in light of the recent softening in some other business surveys. But the China slowdown and VW scandal present clear threats to the outlook. … German Ifo Survey …
Italy’s public debt load is worryingly high, but private sector debt is much less of a concern. This provides some grounds for optimism that a recovery in the private sector which increases the size ofthe economy could eventually help to bring down the …
23rd September 2015
The combination of strong growth in tourism and rapid population growth has driven up retail rental values in the Danish capital. We believe these factors will support further strong demand for prime high street units, driving rental values up by a …
Today’s weak manufacturing PMI reading from China has contributed to the negative sentiment towards commodities, but the data are not as disastrous as some of the headlines have implied. The euro-zone PMIs are holding up relatively well. … China & …
September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to see growth slow in the months ahead. … Euro-zone Flash …
This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone … Catalan cloud could rain on …
22nd September 2015
The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings. What’s more, the Government might still have to make some …
21st September 2015
While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a workable and lasting solution to its unsustainably high debts …
The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro lower, providing a renewed stimulus to the euro-zone’s …
18th September 2015
Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we still think that the UK would remain a haven for FDI …
Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the eurozone’s institutions significantly loosening the …
17th September 2015
Both the regional election in Catalonia later this month, and the general election in December, represent a risk for property investors in Spain. Yet there are a number of reasons to believe that the results will have less impact on the economy than …
The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed upward pressure on the currency and further export weakness …
Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference tour at the end of September. This Focus kicks things …
16th September 2015
The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. … Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next …
The latest euro-zone labour market data show that office jobs are a key driver of overall employment growth in most member states. Moreover, even where office employment is relatively subdued, limited development pipelines mean that the outlook for office …
15th September 2015
Whichever party wins this Sunday’s Greek election is likely to stick broadly to the conditions of the new bailout in the near term. But even an austerity-minded government will struggle to meet future budget goals as the economy underperforms. …
September’s ZEW survey confirmed that recent market turmoil and concerns over the global environment have had an adverse impact on German investor confidence. For now, though, the economy itself remains robust. … German ZEW …
The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second half of the year as the effects of the weaker euro …
July’s rise in industrial production merely offset the declines in the previous two months, so is not the beginning of a stronger upward trend in the sector. The survey evidence points to fairly sluggish growth over the rest of the year. … Euro-zone …
14th September 2015
We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the euro and boost the economy. … Will Fed lift-off hit or …
11th September 2015
It looks increasingly likely that the ECB will expand its asset purchase programme, possibly even as soon as next month. We think that the Bank will step up the pace of purchases, perhaps to €80bn per month. It might also suggest that those purchases will …
10th September 2015
Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q2. And with the conditions in place for sustained rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. … Ireland GDP …
Improving prospects for occupier demand and low vacancy in the Zuidas submarket mean the outlook for prime Amsterdam offices has strengthened. If our forecasts prove correct, total returns in the 2016-19 period will reach 7.9% p.a., which should …
9th September 2015
Anxiety about Grexit may have subsided but the underlying issues have not changed. Greece still needs a weaker currency. The well-worn argument that Greece would not be able to take advantage of a weaker currency because it is a fairly closed economy has …
8th September 2015
Weakening demand growth, an influx of new supply and the sharply depreciating lira are all set to have a negative impact on the office occupier market in Istanbul over the coming years. As such, the outlook for office rental values is firmly negative. … …
Revisions to euro-zone GDP showed that the economy was slightly stronger in the first half of the year than previously thought. However, with inflation likely to fall and growth remain sluggish, we still think that the ECB will expand its policy support. …
Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic demand. Ireland has also benefitted from a number of …
7th September 2015
July’s German industrial production figures revealed a smaller than expected rebound after June’s decline and put an early dent in hopes of a re-acceleration in growth in the third quarter. … German Industrial Production …
Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and weaker euro fade. As such, last week’s hints from ECB …
4th September 2015
We do not believe that the recent turbulence in financial markets heralds a major global slowdown that would push the recovery in European property markets into reverse. Moreover, it has not changed our view that the impending rise in the US Fed Funds …
While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an increase in its policy support in the coming months. … …
3rd September 2015
The rise in euro-zone retail sales in July more than offset the decline in June and suggests that the consumer recovery remains on track. Meanwhile, the final PMIs highlighted the continued poor performance of the French economy. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with inflation still below zero and no let-up in deflationary …
