Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these pressures will force the Riksbank into doing more as soon …
28th October 2015
French consumer spending growth is set to gradually improve in the next few years. This will support better rates of retail sales and occupier demand growth than previously anticipated, leading us to upgrade our retail rental growth forecasts for the 2016 …
27th October 2015
September’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued slow growth, which is likely strengthen the conviction of policymakers at the ECB that more stimulus is needed. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Political wrangling in Portugal since its election has again highlighted the difficulty of imposing endless austerity on a weak economy. The fragile new Government will struggle to meet the European Commission’s targets and may collapse before long, …
26th October 2015
October’s German Ifo survey echoed the message from other indicators that growth may be slowing, although the Volkswagen scandal seems to be having little impact on the car industry for now. … German Ifo Survey …
ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank might use to loosen policy. An interest rate cut looks …
23rd October 2015
Although he said that it would be “a bit of a yawner”, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech on the UK’s membership of the EU contained something for both the pro- and anti-Europe camps to seize upon (with arguably more for the pros). Mr Carney’s …
October’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that the region’s recovery continued at a modest pace at the start of Q4. But the fading boosts from the lower oil price and weaker euro point to slower growth ahead. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
While the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, President Draghi gave even stronger-than-anticipated signals that the QE programme will be expanded in December. … ECB all but promises more support in …
22nd October 2015
Investment activity appears to have plateaued in Central Europe. But if one includes ‘platform deals’, the picture is more positive. That said , there are factors holding volumes back, including a mis -match between buyers’ and sellers’ price …
Austria’s banking sector is still struggling with the legacy of the 2008 crisis when its large exposure to Emerging Europe brought it to the brink of collapse. However, in its current state, with banks in stronger positions and lending growth firmly …
21st October 2015
The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year should prevent the economy from falling into a more …
20th October 2015
The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) revealed a slight loosening of credit conditions for firms and stronger demand for loans. It also gave positive signals about the effects of QE on bank lending, which may encourage the ECB to do more. … ECB …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cities to see stronger population growth than Germany as a whole …
19th October 2015
The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for the economy and, with upward pressure on the franc likely …
While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s economy should be strong enough to continue expanding at a …
16th October 2015
August’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that weakening global demand over the summer took a toll on the region’s exporters, causing the trade surplus to fall from a record high. … Euro-zone Trade …
Recent comments from Governing Council members suggest that the ECB may not be ready to increase its policy support when it meets on 22nd October. But President Draghi is likely to reiterate concerns about the inflation outlook and risks from emerging …
15th October 2015
The Greek parliament looks set to pass the next set of reforms needed to unlock further bailout funds and potentially open the door to a debt restructuring. But with yet more reforms needed, the economy set to weaken and debt unsustainably high, Greece …
The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued, suggesting that the unemployment data will not stop the …
The influx of refugees into Germany has caused much speculation about the costs to the government and possible benefits to the economy. But while the trend presents opportunities for the long term, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the public …
Although France’s headline HICP inflation rate held above zero in September, today’s data revealed that price pressures remain exceptionally weak and will add to the growing pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. … French CPI …
14th October 2015
Since early 2012, the rental premium commanded by prime office space in Munich over that in Hamburg has grown by almost a third. However, in the next few years both demand and supply fundamentals suggest it is more likely to rise further than to go into …
August’s decline in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still struggling to grow despite the weaker euro and that it will not be a major driver of the euro-zone’s sluggish recovery. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union that may be the region’s best chance of future growth …
The Polish regional cities are seeing strong demand from the BPO/SSC sectors. But the office space development pipeline has responded equally robustly. Therefore, although demand growth is set to remain strong, if not strengthen further, rental values …
13th October 2015
October’s German ZEW survey confirmed that concerns over the global environment and the scandal at Volkswagen are taking a toll on investor confidence, which might affect economic activity in the months ahead. … German ZEW …
The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero may be just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still expect further action by December. … Swedish Consumer …
The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the weakness of the exchange rate as much as had been hoped …
The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero maybe just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still expect further action by December. … Swedish Consumer …
Nordic investment activity has already surpassed 2014 levels as exchange rate weakness in the region has created improved perceived value for foreign investors. We expect foreign buyers to account for a growing share of activity and to be willing (and …
12th October 2015
Last week’s news on the euro-zone brought the strongest signs yet that some parts of the currency union are starting to feel the effects of the deterioration in the international environment. In particular, German exports and industrial production fell …
9th October 2015
A mixed set of national industrial production data for August from France, Italy and the Netherlands suggested that while euro-zone industry might have fared slightly better in Q3 than it did in Q2, the sector is still struggling. … French, Italian & …
With government and corporate bond yields at all-time lows in most of Europe and equity dividend yields close to their long-term averages, European commercial property looks relatively well-priced. The greatest value appears to be in some of the …
8th October 2015
This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still likely at some point, with important ramifications for …
7th October 2015
August’s sharp falls in German and Spanish industrial production suggest that weakness in emerging economies may have caused their GDP growth to slow in Q3. … German & Spanish Industrial Production …
We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do well over the next few years whether inside or outside …
6th October 2015
While the re-election of Portugal’s centre-right coalition appeared to be an endorsement of the austerity stance it has taken, its failure to secure a parliamentary majority means that it may struggle to take the tough decisions needed to keep the …
5th October 2015
There is a decent correlation between economic competitiveness and property pricing across Europe. Yet while some markets look mispriced based on this comparison, that’s partly explained by the fact that some of the factors that drive competitiveness are …
August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery remained on track. And the final PMIs point to quarterly GDP growth remaining at around 0.4% in Q3. But September’s monthly fall could be a sign of things to come. … Euro-zone …
The hard data available so far for Q3, as well as the more timely activity surveys, suggest that the economy performed fairly well last quarter. GDP growth probably maintained its pace from Q2 and may even have picked up slightly. But the ECB is likely to …
2nd October 2015
The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the quarterly pace of household spending growth slowed again. …
1st October 2015
Buoyed by strong economic conditions, industrial occupiers in Central Europe are expanding, leading to falling vacancy and rising rents. However, supply is responding. We expect this to curb rental growth in Poland from 2016 and the Czech Republic from …
The improvement in most peripheral countries’ current account positions since the financial crisis should not be fully reversed as their economies recover. However, if and when Greece returns to “normal”, it will need a significant devaluation to avoid …
The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further in the year to August. But for most, this year’s budget targets still look ambitious. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
30th September 2015
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks a pause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the end of the year. … Icelandic interest rates on hold, …
The return of inflation to negative territory in the euro-zone, as well as the continued high rate of unemployment, will heap further pressure on the ECB to increase its stimulus. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment …
