Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords with estimates from the National Farmers Union, which put …
25th August 2015
August’s German Ifo survey suggested that GDP growth had continued to accelerate in Q3. But expectations for the future were weakening even before the latest rise in the euro, suggesting that growth may be nearing a peak. … German Ifo Survey (Aug) & GDP …
Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years either. This will prevent Finland from contributing to the …
24th August 2015
Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside. … Rate cut in Iceland set to be a …
Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with a stronger mandate to pass reforms. But as no major …
21st August 2015
August’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a relief after last month’s fall and signs of a slowdown in other indicators. But it still points to modest growth that will do little to erode the spare capacity in the economy. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the price of oil, as well as monetary policy in Norway and …
20th August 2015
Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. … Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low …
Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy next month. … Norwegian GDP …
Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy next month. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up in the autumn when Greece fails to pass its first …
19th August 2015
Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate increases will be needed in the coming months, as the …
Finland’s year-long recession has been reflected in weakening demand for commercial property space. Yet, as occupiers have traded-up, prime property has performed exceptionally well. However, we expect the link between employment and rental growth in late …
18th August 2015
The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that the Chinese economy is picking up again. Fortunately, …
June’s euro-zone goods trade data suggested that net trade boosted GDP growth in Q2. But as the effects of the weaker euro fade, export growth might soon slow again. … Euro-zone Trade …
17th August 2015
The remaining hurdles to the implementation of the third Greek bailout look likely to be cleared in the next few days. But the deal could unravel quite quickly if Greece fails to meet the extremely demanding economic and fiscal conditions upon which it …
14th August 2015
Economic growth has typically strengthened, but Russia continues to fare poorly and there are some signs of weakness emerging in Norway and Turkey. A lack of major deals in emerging Europe has held back investment levels, but Scandinavia and the UK …
Euro-zone GDP growth lost some pace in the second quarter, with a renewed divergence between healthy growth in Germany and stagnation in France. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2 …
Q2’s Greek GDP figures brought some rare good news. But they relate to an entirely different economy than the one currently being strangled by capital controls. … Greek GDP (Q2, …
13th August 2015
The rebound in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in July might suggest that the Riksbank won’t loosen monetary policy further at its next meeting. But the bigger picture is that inflation is still extremely weak, indicating that more action is needed. … …
Although the renewed fall in French inflation in July largely reflected the decline inthe price of oil, the data nonetheless confirmed that price pressures remain very subdued in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy. … French CPI …
June’s fall in industrial production rounded off a very weak quarter for the sector and strongly suggested that industry will have contributed to a slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q2. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
12th August 2015
While Greece appears finally to be on the verge of receiving a third bailout, the extremely optimisticeconomic & fiscal projections underlying the plan suggest that it might not last for very long. … Greek bailout built on fantasy …
11th August 2015
August’s fall in ZEW investor sentiment suggests that, despite Greece moving closer to a deal with its creditors, investors are increasingly worried about Germany’s recovery. … German ZEW …
Euro-zone all-property yields fell by just 3bps in the second quarter, their slowest quarterly decline since 2013. We believe this is likely to mark the start of a period in which yields now edge down more slowly than over the past 12-18 months. … Slower …
10th August 2015
Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest on factors that may soon start to fade. Given that the …
7th August 2015
June’s industrial production from the euro-zone’s major economies suggested that next week’s figures on GDP growth in the currency union will reveal a slowdown from the already modest growth rates seen in Q1 and Q4 last year. … German, French & Spanish …
Euro-zone commercial property investment recorded another strong quarter in Q2. Nevertheless, the rate of yield compression slowed sharply, with aggregate euro-zone all property yields declining by just 3bps, compared to an average of 9bps over the …
6th August 2015
Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer recovery is unlikely to gain pace, Germany cannot be relied …
While the euro-zone economy has continued to weather the ongoing Greek crisis reasonably well, one potentially worrying recent development is the apparent slowdown in the labour market recovery. Not only did unemployment rise for the first time in nine …
5th August 2015
The sharp drop in euro-zone retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending growth slowed in Q2. But July’s final Composite PMI implies that the wider economy maintained a steady pace of expansion at the beginning of Q3. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The Italian economy’s tentative return to growth and recent structural reforms are unlikely to feed into a meaningful labour market recovery for some time yet. So frustrations with Mr Renzi’s reformist Government may build further. … Italy’s recovery and …
4th August 2015
The scale of the damage done to the Greek economy by the country’s renewed crisis and imposition of capital controls looks set to be far worse than the provisional plans for a third bailout envisaged and suggests that Greece is still likely to leave the …
3rd August 2015
Across Europe, only in a few core markets do a majority of RICS members believe that property valuations are expensive. While that boosts the case for commercial property investment generally, it also suggests that due to a limited scope for yield …
The peripheral economies continued to make fiscal progress in June. But halfway through the year, most have much more work to do if they are to meet their 2015 budget targets. The economic deterioration in Greece suggests that it is highly unlikely to …
Belgium has started to reform its labour market and improve its competitiveness. But this will take time to bear fruit, and further work will be needed. Accordingly, over the next few years we expect GDP growth to remain sluggish and debt to stay high. … …
31st July 2015
Looking ahead to this week, we think that euro-zone retail sales data for June will reveal a slight slowdown in annual sales growth. On a country level, indicative of their wider economic performances, we suspect that industrial production growth in June …
Euro-zone inflation was well below target in July and renewed rises in unemployment suggest that disinflationary forces remain strong. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment …
July’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued, underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. … German Flash CPI …
30th July 2015
Ireland's economy went like the clappers in Q1, setting the country up for another year as the euro-zone's fastest-growing economy. … Ireland GDP …
The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer Survey for July provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economic recovery has retained some momentum in the third quarter. But growth remains generally sluggish and the case for further policy …
Early interest rate rises in the US and UK will push up bond yields globally. But, with further monetary easing still likely in Europe, we do not expect much of an effect on European assets. We therefore expect European property yields will slowly drift …
The provisional estimate of Swedish Q2 GDP revealed that the economic recovery regained some momentum after the disappointing start to the year. But we doubt that it will prevent the Riksbank from cutting the policy rate further below zero. … Swedish GDP …
While Spain’s economic recovery gathered more pace in the second quarter, the large amount of spare capacity is still sustaining deflationary pressures in the economy. … Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) & HICP …
The spread between government bond yields in Germany and the UK is less indicative of the relative strength of the two countries’ economic outlooks than it was in the past. As such, in contrast to most of the last 15 years, the spread between German and …
29th July 2015
We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on key releases in the coming days suggests that there …
