Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
The fourth quarter brought clearer signs of an economic slowdown in non-euro-zone Western Europe. And this economic weakness may help to explain the limited extent of rental value growth in Q4 across the sectors. Nevertheless, investor demand for property …
18th February 2016
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the Riksbank later this year. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the Riksbank later this year. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. …
The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’ profitability. But we doubt this will deter the European Central …
17th February 2016
In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy in March. … Norwegian …
16th February 2016
In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy in March. … Norwegian GDP …
Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts lie to the downside. … Finland’s …
15th February 2016
We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any significant benefits for the rest of the EU, the …
Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this year. … Euro-zone Trade …
There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the concerns over euro-zone banks have added to the …
12th February 2016
The fact that euro-zone GDP growth did not slow in Q4 last year provides little comfort in the current environment of global market turmoil and does not preclude the need for further decisive policy action from the European Central Bank. … Euro-zone GDP …
Frankfurt’s office sector has struggled to shake off the legacy of the credit crunch and structural changes in the local labour market. Add in the likely dampening impact of the recent falls in equity markets, and neither a sharp rise in financial …
The falls in office yields witnessed in 2015, alongside the stabilisation of yields for other asset classes, mean that European office property no longer looks undervalued. Indeed, whilst the majority of markets are now fairly valued, core markets such as …
11th February 2016
Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow. And if asset prices continue to fall, the probability …
Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in order to respond to very low inflation and policy easing by …
Prime yields fell substantially in 2015, but the rate of yield compression moderated in the third quarter. We think that yield falls will slow in most Western European markets in 2016, but that there could be further large drops in the periphery euro-zone …
10th February 2016
The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. … Bank troubles intensify downside risks to …
Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year. … Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening …
December’s weak industrial production data from France and Italy showed that the sector is still struggling and add to the risk that euro-zone GDP growth slowed in Q4. … French & Italian Industrial Production …
December’s shockingly weak industrial production figures suggest the German economy barely grew in Q4 and pile further pressure on the ECB to match its dovish words with decisive action at its March policy meeting. … German Industrial Production & Trade …
9th February 2016
The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that other euro-zone governments’ attempts to resist …
8th February 2016
Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the krone’s peg to the euro, underlining the need for …
The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling asa share of GDP. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
Despite the relatively slow economic growth we expect to see in France in the coming years, structural changes in the retail and logistics markets mean that occupier demand for industrial property will be robust. This will support rental growth of 1.8% …
5th February 2016
Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices. But these effects should be temporary. The indirect …
Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to boost growth and stave off deflation. Only very bold …
4th February 2016
Retail rents in Madrid and Barcelona were flat in Q4. Yet the steady outlook for consumption, coupled with strong growth in tourism, suggests that rents will resume their upward trend this year. … Flat retail rents in Spain are not a sign of things to …
Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP posted a quarterly gain of just 0.3%. This would be the same …
3rd February 2016
Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But the Irish economy should be better able to cope with any …
December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer sector lost some steam at the end of last year. And the final PMIs for January added to the evidence that the wider recovery had a slow start in 2016. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final …
Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did vote to leave, we would see some big negative effects …
2nd February 2016
The most notable development in the latest RICS Global Commercial Property surveys is the increase in the proportion of respondents who view property in the core European markets as expensive. Yet a downturn does not seem imminent, and further gains in …
December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more deflationary pressure in the pipeline. … Euro-zone Unemployment & …
The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades, policymakers will need to provide other sources of …
1st February 2016
President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue that the situation is even more worrying. The French …
29th January 2016
January’s small rise in euro-zone CPI inflation presents no impediment to decisive additional policy loosening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next meeting in March. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
We do not expect either a slowing in house price growth or the newly-built Mall of Scandinavia to derail our retail rental value growth forecasts for Stockholm. As a result, we believe that in terms of rental growth, over the next five years Stockholm …
December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Provisional Q4 GDP data from France, Spain and Austria suggested that the euro-zone’s modest economic recovery is unlikely to have gathered steam in the final quarter of last year, providing a weak platform for growth in 2016. … France, Spain & Austria …
January’s German CPI data revealed a slight rise in inflation following weather-related weakness in December. But while the rate is set to rise further in the months ahead, underlying inflation pressures remain weak enough to warrant further ECB action. …
28th January 2016
January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global demand, this would hit the German economy very hard. …
27th January 2016
In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through this short-term volatility. Indeed, we expect European …
26th January 2016
Berlin became Germany’s largest investment market in 2015, with investment growth of 120%, far outpacing that in the other major cities. Despite Berlin ranking far above Frankfurt in surveys of investment prospects for 2016, over the coming years it is in …
25th January 2016
