Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to see growth slow in the months ahead. … Euro-zone Flash …
23rd September 2015
This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone … Catalan cloud could rain on …
22nd September 2015
The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings. What’s more, the Government might still have to make some …
21st September 2015
While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a workable and lasting solution to its unsustainably high debts …
The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro lower, providing a renewed stimulus to the euro-zone’s …
18th September 2015
Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we still think that the UK would remain a haven for FDI …
Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the eurozone’s institutions significantly loosening the …
17th September 2015
Both the regional election in Catalonia later this month, and the general election in December, represent a risk for property investors in Spain. Yet there are a number of reasons to believe that the results will have less impact on the economy than …
The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed upward pressure on the currency and further export weakness …
Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference tour at the end of September. This Focus kicks things …
16th September 2015
The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. … Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next …
The latest euro-zone labour market data show that office jobs are a key driver of overall employment growth in most member states. Moreover, even where office employment is relatively subdued, limited development pipelines mean that the outlook for office …
15th September 2015
Whichever party wins this Sunday’s Greek election is likely to stick broadly to the conditions of the new bailout in the near term. But even an austerity-minded government will struggle to meet future budget goals as the economy underperforms. …
September’s ZEW survey confirmed that recent market turmoil and concerns over the global environment have had an adverse impact on German investor confidence. For now, though, the economy itself remains robust. … German ZEW …
The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second half of the year as the effects of the weaker euro …
July’s rise in industrial production merely offset the declines in the previous two months, so is not the beginning of a stronger upward trend in the sector. The survey evidence points to fairly sluggish growth over the rest of the year. … Euro-zone …
14th September 2015
We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the euro and boost the economy. … Will Fed lift-off hit or …
11th September 2015
It looks increasingly likely that the ECB will expand its asset purchase programme, possibly even as soon as next month. We think that the Bank will step up the pace of purchases, perhaps to €80bn per month. It might also suggest that those purchases will …
10th September 2015
Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q2. And with the conditions in place for sustained rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. … Ireland GDP …
Improving prospects for occupier demand and low vacancy in the Zuidas submarket mean the outlook for prime Amsterdam offices has strengthened. If our forecasts prove correct, total returns in the 2016-19 period will reach 7.9% p.a., which should …
9th September 2015
Anxiety about Grexit may have subsided but the underlying issues have not changed. Greece still needs a weaker currency. The well-worn argument that Greece would not be able to take advantage of a weaker currency because it is a fairly closed economy has …
8th September 2015
Weakening demand growth, an influx of new supply and the sharply depreciating lira are all set to have a negative impact on the office occupier market in Istanbul over the coming years. As such, the outlook for office rental values is firmly negative. … …
Revisions to euro-zone GDP showed that the economy was slightly stronger in the first half of the year than previously thought. However, with inflation likely to fall and growth remain sluggish, we still think that the ECB will expand its policy support. …
Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic demand. Ireland has also benefitted from a number of …
7th September 2015
July’s German industrial production figures revealed a smaller than expected rebound after June’s decline and put an early dent in hopes of a re-acceleration in growth in the third quarter. … German Industrial Production …
Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and weaker euro fade. As such, last week’s hints from ECB …
4th September 2015
We do not believe that the recent turbulence in financial markets heralds a major global slowdown that would push the recovery in European property markets into reverse. Moreover, it has not changed our view that the impending rise in the US Fed Funds …
While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an increase in its policy support in the coming months. … …
3rd September 2015
The rise in euro-zone retail sales in July more than offset the decline in June and suggests that the consumer recovery remains on track. Meanwhile, the final PMIs highlighted the continued poor performance of the French economy. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with inflation still below zero and no let-up in deflationary …
While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below shows, the recent weakness in oil prices and rise in the …
2nd September 2015
The Swedish consumer sector is set to perform strongly in the coming years. However, the completion of the Mall of Scandinavia later this year will keep prime retail rental growth in Stockholm muted between now and the end of 2017. … Are we too …
The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further at the start of Q3. But this year’s budget targets still look elusive for most. Greece, in particular, will struggle given the renewed slump in economic …
1st September 2015
The latest euro-zone unemployment data offered hope that the slow recovery in the region’s labour market has not gone into reverse. But the bigger picture is that unemployment remains too high to boost wage growth and inflation. … Euro-zone Unemployment …
The Emerging European markets are beginning to diverge, with strong economic growth expected to support high levels of occupier activity in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania, but Russia and Turkey set to underperform over the next few years. …
28th August 2015
Compared to our last Analyst, we have moved up our rental growth forecasts for offices, reflecting limited development pipelines and falling vacancy rates. Rental growth across all sectors, combined with our expectations for further yield compression, …
August’s inflation data confirmed that price pressures in Germany are very subdued,underlining the need for continued and perhaps increased ECB policy support. … German Flash CPI …
We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct trade links between the euro-zone and China are fairly …
August’s EC business and consumer survey provides some reassurance that the eurozone’s economic recovery has continued in Q3, despite the turmoil in global stock markets this month. But the pace of growth is still fairly weak. … EC Business & Consumer …
Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from nettrade can be sustained and we see activity contracting again before long. … Swiss …
Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from net trade can be sustained and we see activity contracting again before long. … Swiss …
The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting on 3rd September as it downplays risks surrounding …
27th August 2015
Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is likely to remain at record lows until at least mid-2016 …
July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in Greece’s banking sector are far from over. … Euro-zone …
The strong expansion in Spain’s economy in Q2 was powered by domestic demand. But this partly reflected the effects of lower oil prices and looser fiscal policy ahead of the general election. As these boosts fade, GDP growth is likely to slow. … Spanish …
France’s Government has finally started to tackle the country’s weak labour market. But we are sceptical that the reforms so far will be sufficient and think that more ambitious measures will be needed to address its structural deficiencies and get France …
26th August 2015
