Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
In 2015, office vacancy rates fell in most euro-zone markets. With supply conditions tightening, and office employment picking up at a steady pace, almost every market will see office rents rise this year. … Rising office employment points to rental …
15th March 2016
While the distribution of helicopter money in the euro-zone is not a likely near-term measure, the lesson of recent years is that seemingly unimaginable policies can become reality. And it may suit the ECB to keep the idea hovering. … Is the ECB about …
The latest changes to its lending operations mean that the ECB will now pay commercial banks to lend to the wider economy. But we still suspect that they will be unwilling to take the associated risks and with firms and households reluctant to borrow, …
The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. …
January’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production was probably just a blip. Survey evidence suggests that the sector remains too weak to prevent the region’s economic recovery from slowing this year. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
14th March 2016
The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the central bank is running out of policy ammunition. Those …
11th March 2016
While a ‘no’ vote in the upcoming Dutch referendum on the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine might have few direct effects, such an outcome would illustrate the Dutch population’s growing discontent with the EU and bode ill for the …
10th March 2016
While the ECB today delivered a package of measures which exceeded market expectations, there is no guarantee that it will revive the euro-zone’s flagging economic recovery and eliminate the threat of deflation in the currency union. … ECB belatedly …
For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of demand in the euro-zone is primarily to blame for Britain’s …
In Q4, Ireland’s economy recorded another rapid expansion, but we are not too concerned about the economy overheating. Growth is likely to slow this year and price pressures appear to be fairly weak . … Ireland GDP …
January’s rise in French industrial production supports the message from German data that the sector had a good start to the year. But German exports fell in January, suggesting that softer global demand is damaging growth. … French Industrial …
Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. … Iceland GDP …
Although Icelandic GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, the big picture is that annual GDP growth accelerated sharply in 2015. … Iceland GDP (Q4 …
The resumption of the first formal review of Greece’s third bailout has raised hopes that the country’s creditors may soon grant it some form of debt relief. But it won’t be big enough to make Greece’s debt burden sustainable and hence ensure its …
9th March 2016
The latest rise in Portuguese bond yields reflects fears that its debt will soon be classified as junk by all four major ratings agencies, leading the country to be excluded from the ECB’s asset purchases. These fears seem justified, suggesting that …
8th March 2016
The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the consumer recovery, which boosted growth last year, is losing steam. With recent evidence that growth is slowing and inflation expectations are falling, this adds to the pressure on the ECB. … …
January’s surprisingly strong gain in German industrial production is unlikely to signal the start of a lasting recovery and hence should not discourage the ECB from further bold policy loosening on Thursday. … German Industrial Production …
Capital value growth is likely to have peaked in 2015, but further falls in yields and steady rental value growth will keep capital values rising in 2016 and 2017. Yet, there will be country and city-level differences. The Norwegian and Turkish markets …
4th March 2016
Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for rental growth in some markets, and also pushed down our near term forecasts for property yields. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in …
The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is real. The Governing Council must deliver further …
The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the deteriorating economic outlook should persuade the Governing …
3rd March 2016
January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is darkening. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs …
Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy effects and a prolonged bout of deflation looks …
2nd March 2016
The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a bigger range of quasi-public companies and maybe …
Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment and strength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB increasing its policy support this month. … Swiss GDP …
Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB increasing its policy support this month. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may see the pace of tightening ease in some countries. … …
1st March 2016
January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI …
As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy is in a strong position to weather a small, short-term …
29th February 2016
The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However, the negative impacts of ‘ Brexit ’ are likely to be …
February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy further. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
In recent years, across Europe, yield compression has been by far the largest driver of capital value growth. Yet property yields are fast approaching their limit. That means we now need to see a pick-up in rental growth, not only to keep capital values …
Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy further. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 …
There is a risk that medium-term rental growth in Poland will be lower due to the populous policies pursued by its new government. However, in the short-term, we think property investors will be more influenced by the weakness of the zloty, which will, at …
26th February 2016
Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global economy and the associated gyrations in financial markets. …
German CPI data revealed that inflation fell back below zero in February and, alongside weak readings for French and Spanish inflation, suggested that the eurozone has re-entered deflation. … German, French & Spanish Flash CPI …
February’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy is slowing. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty well so far, there are early signs of a hit to confidence …
25th February 2016
Given the historic correlation between property yields in Lisbon and Portuguese government bond yields, the recent spike in bond yields seems worrying. Although a correction in property yields does not seem imminent, recent market volatility supports our …
January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its meeting in March. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will cut its policy rate by at least 50 basis points this …
24th February 2016
Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise gradually as we expect, spending growth in these sectors in …
23rd February 2016
Compounded by a negative rental growth outlook, Oslo offices appear overvalued. However, with foreign investors likely to be lured by the historically weak kroner and domestic investors keen on prime property’s relatively secure income yield, we still …
February’s sharper-than-expected decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) added to the evidence that growth there is slowing and further justified additional ECB policy support. … German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & GDP Breakdown …
February’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI supported other evidence that the region’s recovery has slowed in Q1 and added to pressure on the ECB to provide further decisive policy support at next month’s meeting. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
22nd February 2016
The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to remain in a “reformed EU”. However, we doubt the deal …
19th February 2016
Office rental values recorded their strongest quarterly gain since 2011 in Q4. Yet at the all-property level, yield compression, rather than rental growth, proved to be the main driver of capital values. Indeed, the 16bps fall in all-property yields in Q4 …
Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set out two criteria that would inform the Council’s …
