Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is heading back into a long period of economic stagnation or …
15th August 2016
Last week’s euro-zone Q2 GDP data revealed a strong contrast between the region’s strongest and weakest performers, with the French and Italian economies looking particularly vulnerable. In the second half of the year, we expect growth across the region …
12th August 2016
While Q2’s GDP growth was left unrevised at 0.3% in the second estimate, the softoutlook for both growth and inflation suggests that the ECB still has more work to do. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2 …
Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
11th August 2016
The acute phase of Russia’s latest economic crisis now appears to be behind it. However, the prospect of only a weak economic recovery means that a strong rebound of the Moscow commercial property market appears unlikely. … Moscow property about to turn a …
Swedish inflation unexpectedly reached a fresh four-year high in July. But inflation is still below the Riksbank’s target and it is too soon to rule out further policy action. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul. …
Inflation in Norway has been much stronger than the central bank forecast in June, so an interest rate cut in September looks unlikely. But we still expect inflation to fall sharply over the next 12 months. So policy loosening should come back on the …
10th August 2016
Fund managers have reported that they are lowering their return targets in response to the lower interest rate environment and increased competition for commercial property assets. This suggests that they will be willing to pay lower yields than would …
8th August 2016
Despite June’s rise in German industrial production, output in the sector fell in Q2 compared to Q1. Industrial growth should pick up a little in the months ahead, but it is likely to remain subdued by Germany’s past impressive standards. … German …
The Bank of England’s policy action last week added to the pressure on the ECB to do more. At the moment, the ECB’s self-imposed restrictions would prevent a large expansion of its asset purchase programme. But those limitations can be amended, so should …
5th August 2016
The UK’s Brexit vote does not appear to have had a marked adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far as the main survey indicators rose slightly in July. But Q2 GDP data confirmed that economic activity was already slowing before the referendum: GDP …
4th August 2016
With heightened uncertainty stemming from last month’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a slowdown in economic growth and further weakness in the lira will put downward pressure on prime Istanbul retail rents (in US dollar terms) over the second half of the …
The early signs are that while the euro-zone economy has been largely unharmed by the UK’s vote for Brexit, the Irish economy, which has particularly strong trade links with the UK, has taken a hit. That said, it is far too early to suggest that the vote …
With no sign of a government, a third Spanish election is possible. Even if one is avoided, Catalonia’s bid for independence means that political uncertainty will continue to darken Spain’s prospects. … No sign of an end to political uncertainty in …
3rd August 2016
Public finances improved across the region in Q1, and timelier central government data suggest that the peripheral countries continued to perform well in Q2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Spain avoided fines for breaking fiscal rules, but even adjusted targets …
June’s stagnation of euro-zone retail sales suggest that consumer spending ended Q2 on a weak note. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, July’s Composite PMI points to subdued economic growth at the start of Q3. … Euro-zone Retail …
French GDP growth slowed markedly in Q2 and is set to be anaemic over the next few years. But, H1 2016 has seen a surge in office investment activity in La Défense, reflecting growing confidence in the wider Paris office market as the supply overhang …
2nd August 2016
Sweden’s weak Q2 GDP growth rate is at odds with both the monthly economic data and the positive tone of recent surveys. As such, we suspect a decent rebound is on the cards for Q3. … Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data …
While France’s stagnation in the second quarter was partly down to temporary factors, we doubt that there will be a strong rebound in Q3. Indeed, we think that the underlying pace of growth has now slowed to not far above zero and fear that the situation …
1st August 2016
The latest EU bank stress tests confirm that, on the whole, the region’s banks are in a much healthier position than a few years ago. However, there are still significant problems in some countries’ banking sectors, most notably Italy’s. These issues will …
We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is a sign of things to come. While the UK’s vote to leave the EU won’t be a major drag on the euro-zone, we expect growth to slow further as the boosts from lower oil prices and the weaker euro …
29th July 2016
After several years of virtually no development, Dublin office space is set to rise by around 12% of current stock over the next few years. However, in the absence of a sharp slowdown in occupier demand, supply will remain tight, supporting further rental …
The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economy slowed in Q2. We think that this slowdown in growth is a sign of things to come. … Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI …
The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. … Swedish GDP (Q2, 1st …
Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying issue of low profitability in the context of Italy’s weak …
28th July 2016
July’s rise in German inflation further into positive territory is likely to be followed by continued increases in the coming months. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s near-2% target on a sustained basis. … …
July’s rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that businesses and consumers have so far largely shrugged off the negative economic implications of the UK’s Brexit vote. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
Recent news about Greece, including a planned return to bond issuance in 2017, may suggest that it is finally heading out of the woods. But we have been here before and with the debt burden still huge and the recession dragging on, the economy’s future in …
Stockholm office valuations have improved since the end of the first quarter. Additionally, set against relatively mediocre rental growth in many European office markets, Stockholm’s solid growth outlook means that it should be enticing to investors. … …
Investment sentiment toward European commercial property generally remains upbeat according to the RICS Q2 global commercial property survey. While confidence in Hungary jumped again, sentiment has moderated in number of markets, with Ireland suffering in …
27th July 2016
June’s data suggest that euro-zone money and credit growth are still too weak to provide much support to the economy. While the full effects of ECB stimulus introduced in June are yet to be felt, we think that credit growth will remain weak. … Euro-zone …
The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. … Swedish GDP (Q2 16, 1st …
A weaker outlook for the external sector on the back of the UK’s Brexit vote will hit Belgium’s open economy harder than most. And with consumers looking poorly placed to take up the slack, the economy will struggle to grow by much more than 1% this year …
26th July 2016
A prolonged period of looser monetary policy in the wake of Brexit will mean that prime European commercial property capital values will surpass our previous forecasts, despite weaker rental growth. … How does Brexit affect our European commercial …
25th July 2016
Last week’s euro-zone and country level data releases started to lift some of the heavy fog on the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the currency union’s economy. The early signs are somewhat mixed, but provide some reassurance. … Early …
22nd July 2016
July’s slight fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the real economy has generally shrugged off the financial market volatility that followed the UK’s Brexit vote, but remains sluggish. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
After leaving policy on hold today, the ECB also stopped short of promising imminent policy easing. But President Draghi reiterated that the Bank is ready to act and we believe that it will up the pace of asset purchases and possibly cut interest rates at …
21st July 2016
The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. … Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit …
19th July 2016
July’s German ZEW Survey, which was conducted over the past two weeks, suggests that investors are more worried about the effects of Brexit on the German economy than the financial market response has so far implied. … German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank …
On first sight, European investment turnover in H1 was weaker than in the same period in 2015. However, removing the UK from the analysis means that activity has actually ticked up slightly compared to last year. We expect some diversion of capital from …
Lower risk free rates and a relatively strong economy mean that prime property yields in Germany are set to fall even further in the wake of Brexit. While other markets will also see lower property yields, country-specific risks will lead to a growing …
18th July 2016
In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield recently declined to a record low of about 0.75%. Despite …
15th July 2016
As in core Europe, bond yields in the CEE region have fallen indiscriminately in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. This will mean that, whilst economic growth will be a touch weaker, in the long-run prime property yields for much of the region are likely …
The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for fiscal support are thus set to grow. Unfortunately, …
May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports will have cushioned the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. Further ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year, as slower growth in foreign demand weighs on exports. … …
The UK’s vote to leave the EU has weakened the outlook for the European Economy. Admittedly, the financial market reaction has been muted and we think that the UK will ultimately fare well outside the EU. But there will be a near-term hit to UK demand, …
14th July 2016
The European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from loosening policy this month following the Bank of England’s inaction. But the Brexit vote has increased what were already significant downside risks to the euro-zone economy and the inflation outlook …
