Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
January’s surprisingly strong gain in German industrial production is unlikely to signal the start of a lasting recovery and hence should not discourage the ECB from further bold policy loosening on Thursday. … German Industrial Production …
8th March 2016
Capital value growth is likely to have peaked in 2015, but further falls in yields and steady rental value growth will keep capital values rising in 2016 and 2017. Yet, there will be country and city-level differences. The Norwegian and Turkish markets …
4th March 2016
Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for rental growth in some markets, and also pushed down our near term forecasts for property yields. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in …
The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is real. The Governing Council must deliver further …
The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the deteriorating economic outlook should persuade the Governing …
3rd March 2016
January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is darkening. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs …
Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy effects and a prolonged bout of deflation looks …
2nd March 2016
The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a bigger range of quasi-public companies and maybe …
Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment and strength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB increasing its policy support this month. … Swiss GDP …
Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB increasing its policy support this month. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may see the pace of tightening ease in some countries. … …
1st March 2016
January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI …
As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy is in a strong position to weather a small, short-term …
29th February 2016
The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However, the negative impacts of ‘ Brexit ’ are likely to be …
February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy further. … Swedish & Danish GDP …
In recent years, across Europe, yield compression has been by far the largest driver of capital value growth. Yet property yields are fast approaching their limit. That means we now need to see a pick-up in rental growth, not only to keep capital values …
Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy further. … Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 …
There is a risk that medium-term rental growth in Poland will be lower due to the populous policies pursued by its new government. However, in the short-term, we think property investors will be more influenced by the weakness of the zloty, which will, at …
26th February 2016
Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global economy and the associated gyrations in financial markets. …
German CPI data revealed that inflation fell back below zero in February and, alongside weak readings for French and Spanish inflation, suggested that the eurozone has re-entered deflation. … German, French & Spanish Flash CPI …
February’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy is slowing. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty well so far, there are early signs of a hit to confidence …
25th February 2016
Given the historic correlation between property yields in Lisbon and Portuguese government bond yields, the recent spike in bond yields seems worrying. Although a correction in property yields does not seem imminent, recent market volatility supports our …
January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its meeting in March. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will cut its policy rate by at least 50 basis points this …
24th February 2016
Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise gradually as we expect, spending growth in these sectors in …
23rd February 2016
Compounded by a negative rental growth outlook, Oslo offices appear overvalued. However, with foreign investors likely to be lured by the historically weak kroner and domestic investors keen on prime property’s relatively secure income yield, we still …
February’s sharper-than-expected decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) added to the evidence that growth there is slowing and further justified additional ECB policy support. … German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & GDP Breakdown …
February’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI supported other evidence that the region’s recovery has slowed in Q1 and added to pressure on the ECB to provide further decisive policy support at next month’s meeting. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
22nd February 2016
The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to remain in a “reformed EU”. However, we doubt the deal …
19th February 2016
Office rental values recorded their strongest quarterly gain since 2011 in Q4. Yet at the all-property level, yield compression, rather than rental growth, proved to be the main driver of capital values. Indeed, the 16bps fall in all-property yields in Q4 …
Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set out two criteria that would inform the Council’s …
The fourth quarter brought clearer signs of an economic slowdown in non-euro-zone Western Europe. And this economic weakness may help to explain the limited extent of rental value growth in Q4 across the sectors. Nevertheless, investor demand for property …
18th February 2016
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the Riksbank later this year. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the Riksbank later this year. … Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. …
The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’ profitability. But we doubt this will deter the European Central …
17th February 2016
In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy in March. … Norwegian …
16th February 2016
In 2015, growth in Norway’s mainland economy slowed to its weakest pace in six years. And low oil prices seem likely to continue to weigh on the economy. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary policy in March. … Norwegian GDP …
Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP growth forecasts lie to the downside. … Finland’s …
15th February 2016
We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any significant benefits for the rest of the EU, the …
Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this year. … Euro-zone Trade …
There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the concerns over euro-zone banks have added to the …
12th February 2016
The fact that euro-zone GDP growth did not slow in Q4 last year provides little comfort in the current environment of global market turmoil and does not preclude the need for further decisive policy action from the European Central Bank. … Euro-zone GDP …
Frankfurt’s office sector has struggled to shake off the legacy of the credit crunch and structural changes in the local labour market. Add in the likely dampening impact of the recent falls in equity markets, and neither a sharp rise in financial …
The falls in office yields witnessed in 2015, alongside the stabilisation of yields for other asset classes, mean that European office property no longer looks undervalued. Indeed, whilst the majority of markets are now fairly valued, core markets such as …
11th February 2016
Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow. And if asset prices continue to fall, the probability …
Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in order to respond to very low inflation and policy easing by …
