Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we expectthe ECB to announce a six-month extension to its asset …
20th October 2016
September’s Swedish Labour Force Survey confirmed that the previous month’s poorresults were a one-off and highlights the tightness of the labour market. With firms’hiring intentions picking up in recent months, employment should continue to rise. … …
The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by resistance from both the European Commission and the …
18th October 2016
The first European investment data for Q3 show that volumes were down sharply compared to the same quarter a year ago. But that was driven by subdued activity in the UK which, being one of the most traded commercial property markets in the region, had a …
The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic and policy divergences. Slow growth and low inflation in …
17th October 2016
Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier than expected and its low inflation forecast supports our …
16th October 2016
Recent official activity data for the euro-zone have been fairly encouraging. Coupled with the unofficial survey evidence, they suggest that the region’s GDP growth might have maintained its pace or even picked up slightly in Q3. But it will still have …
14th October 2016
The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth remains fairly soft. … Euro-zone Trade …
The ECB’s Governing Council is unlikely to unveil any policy changes at its forthcoming meeting on 20th October. But we expect it to prepare the ground for an extension of its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to be announced at its following meeting in …
13th October 2016
A sharp decline in prime Madrid office yields has fully closed the spread over Milan for just the third time since 1991. With a stronger economic outlook, we think investors will continue to favour Madrid, pushing the city’s yield premium to Milan further …
With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some governments have recently scaled back their austerity plans and …
12th October 2016
The sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production in August suggests that the sectorprovided a positive, albeit small, boost to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry isunlikely to be able to prevent the economic recovery from slowing in 2017. … Euro-zone …
The Norwegian consumer sector has been resilient in the face of the most recent economic slowdown. Additionally, retail sales in Oslo have outperformed the national average and will support strong retailer demand in the coming years. This will see prime …
October’s rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is broadly encouraging, although the index still points to a slowdown in German GDP growth. … German ZEW Survey …
11th October 2016
The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling euroscepticism elsewhere in the region and hence …
Uncertainty ahead of the UK’s vote to leave the EU is likely to explain, at least in part, the easing of office take-up in Dublin in H1. But with an expected slowdown in job creation likely to dampen take-up volumes in the years ahead, we expect prime …
7th October 2016
We think that the rise in government bond yields and slight appreciation of the euro after last week’sreports that the ECB is considering tapering its asset purchases were overdone. After all, in order totaper its purchases, it would first need to extend …
Sharp rises in industrial production in Germany, France and Spain suggest that industry might contribute positively to euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. … German, French & Spanish Industrial Production …
There have been further signs of fiscal slippage in the peripheral economies this month. Germany is also planning a tax cut, but this does not mark a dramatic change in its fiscal stance. It intends to keep running balanced budgets and will maintain the …
The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Iceland will keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build, we think that the Bank will raise rates next year. … …
5th October 2016
The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Icelandwill keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build, wethink that the Bank will raise rates next year. … …
August’s data suggest that euro-zone retail sales growth picked up in Q3, whileSeptember’s Composite PMI implies that growth in the wider economy slowedonly slightly. But headline inflation will soon accelerate, weighing on growth. … Euro-zone Retail …
Recent activity indicators have provided mixed messages about euro-zone growth. The Composite PMI fell to an 18-month low in September, whereas the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reached a nine-month high. (See Chart.) There are some signs that …
4th October 2016
The euro-zone’s two main activity surveys have given conflicting evidence about the state of the economy at the end of the third quarter, with the Composite PMI apparently pointing to slowing GDP growth but the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) …
30th September 2016
Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures will remain subdued, meaning that pressure on the ECB to …
A subdued outlook for consumption and a large pipeline of new retail developments will mean that rental values in Brussels stagnate next year. But for the first time in at least 15 years, limited new retail space in Antwerp, alongside its popularity among …
The consequences of a third election in Spain would be worse than those of earlier votes. And with Catalonia renewing its push for independence, politics represent a clear risk to the economic outlook. … Spanish economy could suffer from political …
29th September 2016
September’s rise in German inflation to +0.5% suggests that euro-zone inflation rose to a 23-month high in the same month. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy effects while underlying price pressures remained subdued. … German Flash CPI …
While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. … EC Business & Consumer Survey …
Today’s relatively positive news about Deutsche Bank adds to the evidence that it is not the next Lehman Brothers for the global financial system and that its troubles are unlikely to trigger a German recession. But recent developments have highlighted …
28th September 2016
August’s money and credit data suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a decent pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain well below the ECB’s target. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
27th September 2016
The Government confirmed today that the constitutional reform referendum will take place on 4thDecember. We think that a rejection of the reforms is a major risk to the economic outlook. … Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic …
26th September 2016
September’s rebound in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) offered hope that the economy remains in good health after the more negative signs from other surveys and hard data. … German Ifo Survey …
After dipping in the second half of 2015, prime office rents in Vienna rebounded over the first six months of this year. With a tight supply side and relatively good employment growth prospects, we think prime rents will continue to move higher. … …
The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will replace its target for the monetary base with a 0% target for 10-year government bond yields has prompted speculation about whether the ECB might follow suit. But we think that this is unlikely. … ECB unlikely …
23rd September 2016
September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 20-month low implies that the already sluggish pace of expansion in the currency union lost further momentum at the end of the quarter. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Buoyant occupier demand for logistics space in Sweden is being met by above-average levels of new supply. However, prime industrial rents in Stockholm will be driven upward as conversion of existing stock to residential use reduces the effective …
The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and signalled that no change was likely in the remainder of the year. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. … Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next …
22nd September 2016
The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest meeting revealed that at least half of the Executive Board thought that there is little need for the Bank to extend asset purchases beyond December. Indeed, increasing inflationary pressure could see the Bank raising …
21st September 2016
Relative to other European cities, property valuations in Dublin are edging towards being overvalued. Nonetheless, while there seems to be little scope for further significant falls, with good rental growth prospects over the next few quarters, prime …
20th September 2016
Rising inflation may be less of a drag on the growth of euro-zone household spending than we had previously feared. But spending growth is still likely to slow, weakening a key support for overall economic growth in the region. … Low inflation won’t …
19th September 2016
Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to maintain its very supportive policy stance for the foreseeable …
Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in Q2, wage growth slowed to its weakest rate in almost …
16th September 2016
Investment demand for Finnish property in H1 more than matched that seen in H1 2015 as Nordic investors and German funds targeted its higher income yields. We think this demand will keep investment volumes strong in the remainder of 2016 pushing the yield …
This Sunday’s election in Berlin is set to bring more evidence of the growing influence of the far-right AfD. While the party does not have enough support to govern Germany, its rise will encourage a tougher stance on immigration and reduce the chance of …
With the exception of Berlin, prime retail rents in Germany’s four main cities have stagnated over the past year or so. But with a healthy economic outlook, we do not think that this is a sign that prime rents have hit a ceiling. … Outlook for German …
15th September 2016
July’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports were a drag on GDP growth at the start of Q3. Looking ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year as global demand growth remains fairly soft. … Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final …
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fearsand the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that itwill renew its currency interventions if needed. With …
