Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
Until recently, medium-term expectations for the economy have incorporated the hope that the UK would at some point exhibit some of structural improvements in performance apparently evident in the US since the middle of the 1990s – previously dubbed the …
4th December 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The consumer slowdown – was that it? …
3rd December 2001
This is a slightly more generous package than we had anticipated, but not nearly as generous as the sharp upward revisions in the forecasts for borrowing over the next several years might suggest. Although borrowing is now expected to be £10bn higher next …
27th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The great trade puzzle …
26th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The risks are in the other direction …
19th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pre-Budget Report 2001 - Preview …
15th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Going too far? …
12th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The beginning of the end for the consumer binge? ( …
5th November 2001
The recent burst of rapid house price inflation has reinforced the perception that investing in housing is a sure-fire winner. Historically, though, the notion of dramatic increases in personal wealth deriving from increases in house prices has been …
31st October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Crying Wolf? …
29th October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … At last, the penny drops! …
22nd October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The manufacturing recovery is a year away …
15th October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dancing gets wilder …
8th October 2001
The twin prospects of war and economic weakness in the wake of the terrorist attacks on America have prompted concerns over the fiscal outlook in the UK. Speculation has increased that the Government will be forced to scale back its public spending plans, …
5th October 2001
Today’s 25bps cut in interest rates is not unexpected as it completes unfinished business from the previous inter-meeting cut. This is the second shoe to drop. … More Cuts to …
4th October 2001
Today’s press is full of the idea that the Prime Minster is set to push ahead with plans for a euro referendum. This is so much at odds with our own assessment, notably in our last Quarterly Review, that we think it merits a comment. … Blair and the Euro …
3rd October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Confidence crumbles...what happens now? …
1st October 2001
The world is on the brink of the worst economic downturn since the second world war. In America this will take the form of outright recession. In Japan and much of Asia, the economy is already in recession, without prospect of immediate respite. … The …
27th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policymakers in a corner …
24th September 2001
The equity markets seem to be reflecting the fear of recession, or even global slump. Even though we are hopeful that these fears are overdone, we cannot say that they are ridiculous. Quite apart from the threat of terrorism, the business news is so grim …
21st September 2001
Today’s 25bp cut in interest rates from the Bank of England looks a bit like a compromise between those MPC members anxious to participate in the global loosening of policy kicked off by the Fed yesterday and those still concerned about the strength of …
18th September 2001
Today’s intra-meeting cut in US interest rates illustrates the Fed’s determination to do everything it can to help financial markets in the wake of last week’s events. Although the stock market might not have fallen very heavily upon re-opening today, the …
17th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surveying the damage …
Yesterday’s events in the United States are so horrific, and so important on both a human and a political scale that we may say that America will never be the same again. The human tragedy is such as to dwarf any concerns about the purely financial …
12th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Walking into a housing trap? …
10th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The great consumer confidence conundrum …
3rd September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Things turn nasty …
28th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumers keep their sensitive side …
19th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No longer just a manufacturing problem …
6th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dual speed is better than no speed …
30th July 2001
Consensus forecasts that the economy will grow in line with its long run average rate this year appear to be based upon two key conditions: First, that the slowdown on the industrial side of the economy will be relatively mild; and second, that the rest …
24th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to worry about margins …
23rd July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The big hit is yet to come …
16th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Clear signals from the Bank …
13th July 2001
Oil prices have fallen through $24 per barrel for the first time since early April on signs of both weaker demand in response to the economic slowdown and increased supply as Iraq has resumed shipments. Altogether, oil prices have now fallen by almost 20% …
12th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industry to tip the balance? …
9th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Stocks boost threatens growth later on …
2nd July 2001
The euro is the main economic issue of the day. Both financial planners and economic policy-makers would be strongly affected if the pound were to join it and, accordingly, they are obliged to make an assumption about whether and when this will happen. …
27th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth imbalances should not deflect the MPC …
25th June 2001
Last night’s Mansion House Speech by Gordon Brown seems to have put paid to recent speculation of an early assessment of the five economic tests leading to a euro referendum as soon as this Autumn. Although the Government is still committed to an …
21st June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Time for the MPC to hold its nerve …
18th June 2001
A succession of stronger economic data releases, coupled with speculation of early entry into the single currency, has prompted a dramatic shift in the markets’ expectations of the future path of interest rates in recent weeks. Money markets are now …
13th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Post-election headaches for the MPC …
11th June 2001
Markets and business have approached the prospect of a second Labour term in Government in relaxed mood. This no doubt reflects the generally market friendly policies of the first term, coupled with the buoyancy of the wider economy. … A Wolf in Sheep’s …
8th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing: no boom, so no bust …
4th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Balanced growth...for now …
28th May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why hasn’t RPIX fallen? …
21st May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 41/2% rates as industry crumbles …
14th May 2001
Clients of Capital Economics will know that we have been well ahead of consensus forecasts in predicting lower official interest rates in the UK this year. We first forecast that the Bank of England’s repo rate would drop to 5% by end-2001 back in …
10th May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A quarter point likely, but a half perfectly possible …
7th May 2001
