Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The equity markets seem to be reflecting the fear of recession, or even global slump. Even though we are hopeful that these fears are overdone, we cannot say that they are ridiculous. Quite apart from the threat of terrorism, the business news is so grim …
21st September 2001
Today’s 25bp cut in interest rates from the Bank of England looks a bit like a compromise between those MPC members anxious to participate in the global loosening of policy kicked off by the Fed yesterday and those still concerned about the strength of …
18th September 2001
Today’s intra-meeting cut in US interest rates illustrates the Fed’s determination to do everything it can to help financial markets in the wake of last week’s events. Although the stock market might not have fallen very heavily upon re-opening today, the …
17th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surveying the damage …
Yesterday’s events in the United States are so horrific, and so important on both a human and a political scale that we may say that America will never be the same again. The human tragedy is such as to dwarf any concerns about the purely financial …
12th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Walking into a housing trap? …
10th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The great consumer confidence conundrum …
3rd September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Things turn nasty …
28th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumers keep their sensitive side …
19th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No longer just a manufacturing problem …
6th August 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dual speed is better than no speed …
30th July 2001
Consensus forecasts that the economy will grow in line with its long run average rate this year appear to be based upon two key conditions: First, that the slowdown on the industrial side of the economy will be relatively mild; and second, that the rest …
24th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to worry about margins …
23rd July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The big hit is yet to come …
16th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Clear signals from the Bank …
13th July 2001
Oil prices have fallen through $24 per barrel for the first time since early April on signs of both weaker demand in response to the economic slowdown and increased supply as Iraq has resumed shipments. Altogether, oil prices have now fallen by almost 20% …
12th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industry to tip the balance? …
9th July 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Stocks boost threatens growth later on …
2nd July 2001
The euro is the main economic issue of the day. Both financial planners and economic policy-makers would be strongly affected if the pound were to join it and, accordingly, they are obliged to make an assumption about whether and when this will happen. …
27th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth imbalances should not deflect the MPC …
25th June 2001
Last night’s Mansion House Speech by Gordon Brown seems to have put paid to recent speculation of an early assessment of the five economic tests leading to a euro referendum as soon as this Autumn. Although the Government is still committed to an …
21st June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Time for the MPC to hold its nerve …
18th June 2001
A succession of stronger economic data releases, coupled with speculation of early entry into the single currency, has prompted a dramatic shift in the markets’ expectations of the future path of interest rates in recent weeks. Money markets are now …
13th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Post-election headaches for the MPC …
11th June 2001
Markets and business have approached the prospect of a second Labour term in Government in relaxed mood. This no doubt reflects the generally market friendly policies of the first term, coupled with the buoyancy of the wider economy. … A Wolf in Sheep’s …
8th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing: no boom, so no bust …
4th June 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Balanced growth...for now …
28th May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why hasn’t RPIX fallen? …
21st May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 41/2% rates as industry crumbles …
14th May 2001
Clients of Capital Economics will know that we have been well ahead of consensus forecasts in predicting lower official interest rates in the UK this year. We first forecast that the Bank of England’s repo rate would drop to 5% by end-2001 back in …
10th May 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A quarter point likely, but a half perfectly possible …
7th May 2001
Three previously mutually owned organisations – Friends Provident, Scottish Provident, and Scottish Life – have announced that, subject to members’ approval, they are to lose their mutual status. Should all three de-mutualisations go ahead, figures in the …
4th May 2001
Around 8% of the UK’s total livestock has already been destroyed as a result of the foot and mouth outbreak. However, the ultimate impact on output in the livestock sector will be proportionately much larger than this because of the effect of movement …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Warning lights getting brighter …
30th April 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Margin-building not likely to go far …
23rd April 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Monetary Policy …
20th April 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC’s loosening bias …
9th April 2001
Today’s ¼ point cut in base rates is proof that, for all the indications that the fundamentals of the UK economy remain in good shape, the MPC is fully aware of the potential impact that a rapid slowdown in the global economy might have on the UK. … …
5th April 2001
I believe that the MPC will cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, although, unlike in February, it may not be a unanimous decision. … Rates to fall amidst risks to …
2nd April 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Confidence on the brink? …
For the first time in a decade the world has to confront the serious possibility of a recession – or even a slump. In the United States the fundamentals still suggest a major slowdown. More importantly, the scale of previous financial imbalances, in both …
30th March 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have rate expectations fallen too far? …
26th March 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Domestic Demand Versus the World …
19th March 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … City bonuses won’t deflect the MPC …
16th March 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Green light for the MPC …
12th March 2001
The official target measure of inflation, RPIX, is not only running well below target, but is probably seriously exaggerating true inflationary pressures. … Inflation is in the Eye of the …
7th March 2001
This is a much tighter budget than financial markets might have feared from a Chancellor awash with cash and soon to face an election. A great deal of sound and fury was made about many measures to impress the electorate but the total “give-away” is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing set for take-off? …
5th March 2001
Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords with estimates from the National Farmers Union, which put …
1st March 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the industrial turning point upon us? …
23rd February 2001
