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The leaks about this year’s budget were half right. The increases in spending are indeed enormous, concentrated on the NHS, but the tax rises on individuals are smaller than we had been led to believe. (Surprise, surprise.) Moreover, they only come into …
17th April 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Give manufacturers a chance …
15th April 2002
House prices are currently rising by between 14% and 16% a year, giving rise to fears of a looming crash. A key indicator of whether or not house prices are sustainable is their relationship to earnings, as given by the ratio of average house prices to …
12th April 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil price rises cut both ways …
8th April 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold for a while yet …
4th April 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Base rates to remain on hold – but don’t expect early hikes …
3rd April 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Balance of payments still okay...for now …
2nd April 2002
The world economy has shown encouraging signs of recovery in the last three months. Surveys of business and consumer confidence have rebounded, and industrial orders have started to rise again. And in the US, even the labour market appears to be …
30th March 2002
In contrast to his previous five Budgets, Mr Brown will present his sixth against a deteriorating fiscal background. Coupled with the pressures to maintain strong spending growth in key public services, this has led to expectations that taxes will rise …
28th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong sales won’t force rates up …
25th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate cuts fade away, but rises are nowhere in sight …
20th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanners in the inflation works? …
18th March 2002
Few domestic economic issues have prompted as much concern recently as the level of household debt. Even the policymakers themselves have worried that, in cutting interest rates to very low levels to maintain growth in the short-term, they could simply be …
11th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Productivity set for take-off? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold, but rate cutting cycle may not yet be over …
7th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebalancing underway, but mind the gap …
4th March 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tax warnings overdone …
25th February 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retailers try it on …
18th February 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong housing, strong consumer …
11th February 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Much closer than it looks …
4th February 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Abandoning the inflation target? …
28th January 2002
Last year’s performance of the current account was much better than the consensus forecast, despite the fact this forecast was based on what turned out to be a much too optimistic world growth picture. If consensus forecasters had known that the UK would …
22nd January 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The great sales puzzle …
21st January 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retailers’ last hurrah? …
14th January 2002
Markets have begun the new year with their traditional pessimism towards interest rates. Having dropped to levels perceived to be “abnormally low” last year, rates are now expected to move quickly back up to more “normal” levels of nearly 5.5% by the end …
9th January 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Heroes or Villains? …
7th January 2002
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Borrowing still on track to undershoot …
20th December 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation Special: Deflation ahead? …
17th December 2001
November’s drop in RPIX inflation to its equal lowest ever level was notable enough, but in our view the number is just the starting point for some much more dramatic falls ahead. … Deflation …
14th December 2001
A simultaneous slowdown in all of the industrial nations is now underway. The result is that global growth in 2002 may be the weakest in post-war history. … Profits - The Bottom Line; Sharp falls in store in 2002 (Q1 …
13th December 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets getting ahead of themselves? …
10th December 2001
Until recently, medium-term expectations for the economy have incorporated the hope that the UK would at some point exhibit some of structural improvements in performance apparently evident in the US since the middle of the 1990s – previously dubbed the …
4th December 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The consumer slowdown – was that it? …
3rd December 2001
This is a slightly more generous package than we had anticipated, but not nearly as generous as the sharp upward revisions in the forecasts for borrowing over the next several years might suggest. Although borrowing is now expected to be £10bn higher next …
27th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The great trade puzzle …
26th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The risks are in the other direction …
19th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pre-Budget Report 2001 - Preview …
15th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Going too far? …
12th November 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The beginning of the end for the consumer binge? ( …
5th November 2001
The recent burst of rapid house price inflation has reinforced the perception that investing in housing is a sure-fire winner. Historically, though, the notion of dramatic increases in personal wealth deriving from increases in house prices has been …
31st October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Crying Wolf? …
29th October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … At last, the penny drops! …
22nd October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The manufacturing recovery is a year away …
15th October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dancing gets wilder …
8th October 2001
The twin prospects of war and economic weakness in the wake of the terrorist attacks on America have prompted concerns over the fiscal outlook in the UK. Speculation has increased that the Government will be forced to scale back its public spending plans, …
5th October 2001
Today’s 25bps cut in interest rates is not unexpected as it completes unfinished business from the previous inter-meeting cut. This is the second shoe to drop. … More Cuts to …
4th October 2001
Today’s press is full of the idea that the Prime Minster is set to push ahead with plans for a euro referendum. This is so much at odds with our own assessment, notably in our last Quarterly Review, that we think it merits a comment. … Blair and the Euro …
3rd October 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Confidence crumbles...what happens now? …
1st October 2001
The world is on the brink of the worst economic downturn since the second world war. In America this will take the form of outright recession. In Japan and much of Asia, the economy is already in recession, without prospect of immediate respite. … The …
27th September 2001
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policymakers in a corner …
24th September 2001
