Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
Gordon Brown presents his 8th Budget next Wednesday against a significantly stronger economic backdrop than that of a year ago. Thanks to the recovery in the global economy and some favourable revisions to past data, Mr Brown’s forecast of 3.0% to 3.5% …
9th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebalancing under threat …
8th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More rate rises coming, but only to 4.5% …
4th March 2004
The only tool which is currently available to dampen the record levels of household borrowing is the interest rate. But the Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that its remit is to target inflation and not asset prices nor households’ borrowing. …
3rd March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s numbers come up …
1st March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too early to panic about retail margins …
23rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC banks on economic utopia …
15th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC streaks ahead …
9th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates rise as expected – where now depends on housing …
5th February 2004
Wages growth has remained remarkably subdued in recent months, with last month’s data showing annual average earnings growth of just 3.2%. But with the labour market data also showing employment picking up strongly, the inevitable concern is that the …
3rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up this week, but still on course to peak at 4.25% …
2nd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth figures ease MPC’s dilemma… for now …
26th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New Year, same imbalances …
12th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates held, but probably going up in February …
8th January 2004
The pound has been caught in the middle of a major realignment between the US dollar and the euro, which we believe could have significantly further to go. … The pound at a critical juncture (Q1 …
30th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fall in inflation heightens MPC dilemma …
22nd December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Whoops, there goes another £10bn …
15th December 2003
After flitting in and out of recession for the last five years, the manufacturing sector has seen signs in recent months that conditions are finally improving. In particular, the CIPS Report on Manufacturing is consistent with an acceleration in the …
11th December 2003
As usual, the Pre-Budget Report contained little in the way of major fiscal measures. Of more interest were the new economic and fiscal forecasts, which revealed much higher public borrowing than was expected in the Budget. The forecast for public sector …
10th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … It’s all going to plan...almost …
8th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates will be raised “cautiously” to 4.25% …
4th December 2003
Gordon Brown will present his seventh Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on December 10th against a now familiar background of rapidly escalating public borrowing. We expect him to push his forecast for Public Sector Net Borrowing in the current year up by around …
3rd December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate rise is final straw for consumer confidence …
1st December 2003
Household debt continues to rise at worryingly rapid rates, having already reached record highs relative to households’ income. Admittedly, debt servicing costs are historically low, with interest payments on household debt equalling just 7.2% of …
26th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling services inflation to help limit rate hikes …
24th November 2003
With the threat of falling house prices around the corner, the question inevitably arises of whether we are about to see a return of the widespread negative equity of the 1990s, when thousands of households saw the value of their houses fall below that of …
20th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC’s growth optimism justifies rate rises...for now …
17th November 2003
The growth of average earnings is likely to pick up over the next two years. We see it accelerating from an average of 3.4% this year to 4% in 2004 and 4.5% in 2005 due to a number of special factors. … Average earnings growth to …
11th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the MPC hiding behind sterling? …
10th November 2003
Predictions from some forecasters that interest rates are set to rise to 5% or above in the current cycle are based at least in part on the assumption that the Monetary Policy Committee will want to raise interest rates back up to a “neutral” level from …
9th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the MPC targeting asset prices? …
6th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the MPC going beyond its remit? …
3rd November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Short sterling is wrong – despite those sales data …
27th October 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates – where to and with what effect? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forecast change – UK rates to rise to 4.25% by mid-2004 …
22nd October 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr King’s comments excite – but for no real reason …
20th October 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The manufacturing recovery needs nurturing …
13th October 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hey presto, the consumer slowdown’s back! …
6th October 2003
Conventional wisdom has had it that the impending switch in the targeted measure of UK inflation from RPIX to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) will have either a neutral or downward influence on UK interest rates. But this view has been …
30th September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tinkering with the trend won’t save the public finances …
29th September 2003
In May next year, eight Central and Eastern European Countries together with Cyprus and Malta will join the European Union, increasing membership from 15 to 25 states. How this enlargement works will be a test case for the still greater enlargements which …
27th September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC flirts with a dangerous game …
22nd September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forecast change – UK interest rates on hold until Q3 2004 …
18th September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Future looks brighter for manufacturing …
15th September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The upturn in the housing market won’t last …
8th September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate expectations will drop back...some day! …
1st September 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumers still spending for now… thank goodness …
25th August 2003
Recent months have seen renewed concerns over the outlook for the public finances, prompted both by the latest fiscal numbers themselves and worries over the future performance of the economy. Together, these have led some forecasters to predict that …
18th August 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Higher saving doesn’t negate debt worries …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A lifeline for Mr Brown …
11th August 2003
