Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The consumer boom is granted a reprieve…for now …
20th August 2004
The most frequently used method of estimating the markets’ expectations for the official interest rate is to derive an implied path from short sterling futures contracts. On the face of it, these suggest that the markets are currently expecting the repo …
17th August 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC switches to damage limitation …
16th August 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industry too weak to offset housing downturn? …
13th August 2004
With UK interest rates still firmly in the up-phase of the cycle, markets and commentators alike have continued to focus on exactly how far rates are likely to rise. So far, they appear to have given little thought to when rates might start to fall again. …
9th August 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Clearer signals from the MPC …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC sticks to a quarter, but the next will follow soon …
5th August 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumers carry on regardless …
2nd August 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The £1 trillion question …
The last year or so has seen an unprecedented degree of unity in the voting behaviour of members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Only once in the last 12 months has the size of the majority slipped below eight and five of the last six meetings have …
29th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates to keep rising after August …
26th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Efficiency savings or not, taxes will have to rise …
20th July 2004
Today’s labour market data revealed a further drop in unemployment, with the claimant count rate, already at a 29 year low, edging down further to just 2.7% in June. As such, concerns are building that the tightening of the labour market could soon prompt …
14th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spending Review leaves Mr Brown banking heavily on growth …
12th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surveys suggest that growth has peaked …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates have further to rise, but will drop next year …
8th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spending Review to confirm slower spending growth ahead …
6th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Re-balancing finally underway? …
5th July 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Talk of a lower pound may be premature …
28th June 2004
The general perception among economists and the markets alike is that the UK’s inflation targeting monetary policy regime is the model that all other countries should follow. But is the current regime really so wonderful? … Monetary Policy at the …
27th June 2004
The failure of the increases in official UK interest rates seen in recent months to have any visible impact on the housing market or the rapid growth of household spending and borrowing suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee might need to take more …
22nd June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … First hints of a housing slowdown? …
21st June 2004
The answer is no. Attention tends to focus on CPI, given that it is the measure of inflation targeted by the Monetary Policy Committee. And although yesterday’s data showed that CPI inflation rose to 1.5% in May from 1.2% in April, the rise was mainly …
16th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … King steps up efforts to cool the housing market …
15th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise more aggressively this year, but then to fall in 2005 …
10th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The interest rate debate: June or July? …
7th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing market concerns drag down rate expectations …
6th June 2004
On the face of it, households are having an easy time servicing their record levels of debt. Interest payments as a percentage of their income (income gearing) are just 7.1%, less than half the 1990 peak of 15%. But with interest rates, until recently, at …
1st June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lack of GDP revision questions MPC optimism …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Underlying price pressures remain benign …
24th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s accumulator not a good bet for the economy …
22nd May 2004
The Monetary Policy Committee’s prediction of a very solid 3.5% expansion in GDP this year is based on the assumption that the official output data will soon reflect the buoyancy of the business surveys. But in the case of the manufacturing sector, we …
18th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Higher interest rates pose dangers further out …
17th May 2004
The recent rise in global oil prices to close to $40pb appears to provide support for the MPC’s concerns that rising commodity prices pose a serious threat to the outlook for UK inflation. But while much depends on whether oil prices rise any further and …
11th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Come on, admit it! …
10th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rate forecast revision – rates to rise to 4.75% this year …
6th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC is targeting house prices – whether it admits it or not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slower growth and weak inflation cloud rate outlook …
5th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A rate hike would smell of fudge …
4th May 2004
Conventional wisdom has it that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), which rose to a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, has provided a strong boost to household spending and will continue to do so. However, we believe that the links between MEW …
26th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC must now decide – inflation or house prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A model for slower rate hikes? …
22nd April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling threatens to put the MPC in a spin …
19th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling saves the gradualist approach …
13th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise in May, but not by much more thereafter …
8th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up on Thursday, but they may not go much higher …
5th April 2004
Despite widespread expectations that the growth of household spending would slow under the weight of record levels of household debt, there has been little evidence that the spending boom is coming to an end. … Shop or drop? (Q2 …
30th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Debt vs. the pound – the interest rate debate …
29th March 2004
Dull though this Budget was, the big surprise was that the Chancellor chose not to raise money but rather to give it away. Admittedly, the amounts are tiny – some £700m, making a net giveaway since the last budget of just under £2bn. But the fact that …
17th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s rise is not being felt...yet …
15th March 2004
