Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will consumers surprise us again? …
25th February 2008
The rebound in retail sales in January underlined last year’s lesson not to underestimate the resilience of UK consumers. However, the more discretionary part of sales – non-food – remains fairly sluggish. And spending off the high street (which is the …
21st February 2008
The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are a couple of good reasons why inflation expectations are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Jan.) …
The reported increase in the number of Polish workers returning home from the UK will favour Poland’s growth prospects to the detriment of the UK’s. However, this is a long-term development that will not prompt a radical shift in monetary policy by either …
Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at least one upside inflation risk about which the …
20th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Trends (Feb.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Public Finances (Jan.) …
As Northern Rock’s £100bn of liabilities have already been taken onto the Government’s books, nationalisation does not change anything from an accounting point of view. However, it does mean that the dent to the Government’s balance sheet will last …
18th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC too pessimistic on inflation …
Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer demand particularly weak, one option he might consider …
15th February 2008
The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken, we doubt that this strength will persist for much …
A major downturn in the UK economy could see public borrowing rise as high as £100bn or even £150bn per annum, blowing the fiscal framework to smithereens and perhaps even leading to some rise in the Government’s relative cost of borrowing. … Just how bad …
14th February 2008
Bond markets appear to have become much more concerned about the inflation outlook in the UK than elsewhere. Nonetheless, with the UK on the cusp of a sharp slowdown in activity, it might not be too long before the bond market’s inflation fears start to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) …
13th February 2008
The outlook for consumer spending has deteriorated and we have downgraded our consumer spending forecasts. We now expect real spending to rise by only 1.5% this year and 1.0% in 2009. … Households face a double whammy (Q1 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) …
Early signs that UK exporters are using the fall in the pound to boost their profit margins rather than their competitiveness could mean that the lower exchange rate does not lead to the rebalancing of the economy that most commentators, including the …
12th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices & Trade (Jan./Dec.) …
11th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CLG House Prices (Dec) & Mortgage Rates (Jan) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation Report could disappoint rate expectations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage arrears and possessions …
8th February 2008
The decision by National Statistics to take Northern Rock onto the Government’s books may not necessarily break the Government’s Sustainable Investment Rule. Nonetheless, it clearly deals another blow to the already unhealthy fiscal position. … Northern …
7th February 2008
Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by just 25 bps would seem to confirm that lingering inflation concerns will restrict policy loosening to a gradual pace over the coming months, increasing the risk of a deep and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Dec.) …
According the Financial Times this morning, the adoption of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in the public accounts from this April could lead to the inclusion of the Government’s liabilities relating to the Private Finance Initiative …
5th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (January) …
The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the unemployment rate from 5.3% to 7.5%, its highest level in ten …
4th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All types of borrowing slowing significantly …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Jan) …
1st February 2008
Recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communications have just about made a rate cut on Thursday a done deal. The recent equity market turmoil has raised the question of whether the MPC should follow the Fed’s lead and take a more aggressive approach to …
31st January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (January) …
Growing concerns over the outlook for the economy have started to take their toll on equity markets. The 10% fall in the FTSE 100 largely reflects global issues. Nonetheless, it took equity prices back in line with other asset prices, such as bonds. The …
30th January 2008
Mervyn King’s re-appointment as Governor of the Bank of England for another five years is possibly a slightly hawkish development for the outlook for interest rates. Nonetheless, it will be seen as the safest option in the current period of economic and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (Dec.) …
