Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier currencies in the firing line Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in October but persistent electricity supply problems, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a worsening external backdrop mean that the economic recovery... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS: last of the good news on SA’s public finances? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday provided further good news on the state of the public finances, but pressure for public sector wage increases is just one of a number of... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event South Africa Drop-In: Unpacking the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 1666792800 Our Emerging Markets team gave our clients their immediate reaction to the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 26th October. The team addressed key issues, including:
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) August’s hard activity data out of South Africa and more timely indicators point to a small fall in GDP in Q3, marking a technical recession. Even so, we expect the Reserve Bank to stay focused on... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) While South Africa’s headline rate edged down to 7.5% y/y in September, the surprising strength of core inflation will push policymakers to deliver another 75bp hike in the benchmark interest rate, to... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to a 17-year high of 20.8% y/y last month reinforces our view that policymakers will raise the benchmark rate by a further 100bp, to 16.50%, in November... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s public finances, ups and downs of SA industry The shelf life of Nigeria’s recently presented budget plans is likely to be short with elections due in early-2023 and no guarantee about policy continuity. Any new administration will not only have... 14th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB: treading its own path The bi-annual Monetary Policy Review released this week by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) bolsters our view that the tightening cycle, while slow to start, is likely to be one of the most... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The drop back in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September paints a worrying picture that the sector may have contracted again in Q3. Ongoing electricity supply problems, combined with a worsening... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
