Canada Economics Weekly Insolvency data make for grim reading The insolvency data released this week show the toll that high interest rates are putting on consumers and businesses. That is unlikely to be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar. 2024) The jump in the unemployment rate in March, together with evidence of easing wage pressures, raises the chance of the Bank of Canada surprising markets with a rate cut next week, although our base... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Mar.) The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upturn in money growth tallies with stronger activity Whether you’re a monetarist or not, it’s hard to ignore that the surge and plunge in the money supply preceded the surge and plunge in inflation. An imminent rebound in the money supply supports the... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 24) The first decline in the Halifax House price Index in six months confirmed that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda signals low bar for further rate hikes Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today indicated that it wouldn't take much for the Bank to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. The extreme labour shortages coupled with persistent... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
