US Economics Update Dollar's strength not a threat to US economy The dollar’s rise is attracting a lot of attention, but is nowhere near big enough yet to have any significant impact on US inflation, although it does appear to be weighing on exports. In real trade... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities. 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour demand easing, wage growth more resilient The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Apr. 2024) The second consecutive decline in the Nationwide house price index in April confirms that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year will prevent further near-term price gains. But as we... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The housing rebound that began early last year continued to lose momentum in April. With affordability likely to remain stretched for the foreseeable future, house price growth will only ease further... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2024) 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions about EU trade defences against China The anti-dumping duties that the EU is likely to impose on Chinese imports in the coming months will have little macroeconomic impact. But more goods will be targeted in the next couple of years with... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Inflation Watch – Bumpy ride back to target 1715176800 Is progress stalling on efforts to get inflation under control? Why are price pressures proving more stubborn than expected?
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2024) The substantial shortage of existing homes for sale fueled a robust 0.4% m/m rise in house prices in February, consistent with our above-consensus call that house price growth will end 2024 at 5% y/y. 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2024) Despite the weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in February, first-quarter growth still looks to be close to 2.5% annualised. The weaker flash estimate for March points to less momentum going into the... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q1) The persistence of wage growth is another reason for the Fed to take its time on rate cuts. According to the first-quarter employment cost index, civilian wages increased at a 1.1% non-annualised pace... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024) March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) The weakness in retail sales last month suggests that sales volumes fell across Q1 as a whole. However, with households’ real incomes staging a recovery, consumer spending should pick up over the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
