US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US shale boom approaching a peak Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heading for a weaker second quarter The further evidence of softer activity this week might not be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in June, but they add to our sense that rate cuts are coming very soon. 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation slowly easing; activity softens The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China this week, but they will have little impact on economic activity or inflation. Otherwise... 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years? Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three... 17th May 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening On the Bank of Japan's favoured measure, spare capacity has remained tight across the economy despite the recent weakness of GDP - which this week's data confirmed extended into Q1. That's another... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Inflation may soon be too low Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from 3.2% in March to below 2.0% in April and below 1.0% later this year would leave inflation much lower than the Bank of England and the consensus forecasts... 16th May 2024 · 28 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output in April , together with the downward revision to the March gain, from 0.5% to 0.2%, continues the run of weaker activity data and will further solidify... 16th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2024) The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
