US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1) The 1.7% annualised gain in GDP in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for an above-potential 2.8% increase. With consumption growth looking much stronger than expected... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Apr.) As expected, the PCE deflator data suggest that, although not quite as bad as the first three months of the year, inflation was still running above target in April. At the same time, however, the real... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024) While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2024) Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate. 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower education costs could boost fertility rate While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24) On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24) May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global growth to slow following strong Q1 The stronger than expected Q1 GDP data in several major economies suggest that the global economy got off to a strong start in 2024. But we expect global growth to fall back to a slightly below-trend... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation pressures likely to remain muted We suspect that monthly core price growth will accelerate marginally from the very soft rates seen in the first four months of the year but, on the whole, core price pressures should remain muted... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Caution favours the hold The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of... 29th May 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
