Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (May 2025) Labour market and population data published today are sending mixed signals about capacity pressures in the economy. Either way, they probably won’t prevent the RBA from cutting rates further in the... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2025) Although New Zealand’s recovery gained traction last quarter, there are signs that the upshift in momentum will prove short-lived. Accordingly, we still think there’s a strong case for the RBNZ to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains on sidelines amid heightened uncertainty The Fed will remain on the sidelines for some time, waiting to see what impact tariffs will have on price inflation. We suspect that lingering fears of a more persistent impact will persuade the Fed... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2025) The Fed’s new interest rate projections still just about show a median of 50bp of cuts to its policy rate for this year, but it was very close. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (May 2025) The sharp drop in housing starts in May is not as bad as it looks, as it was entirely due to a steep decline in groundbreaking in the volatile multi-family sector, while unseasonably wet weather in... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why UK housing demand can recover despite high mortgage rates Two developments in borrower and lending behaviour mean that housing activity and prices can be higher than before the pandemic for any given mortgage rate. That’s why we expect housing transactions... 18th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 25) While US-bound exports kept falling in May, Japan’s overall exports were little changed and we estimate that net exports will be only be a small drag on Q2 GDP growth 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily JGBs still vulnerable to tighter BoJ policy Although we’ve become less confident the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its policy rate again this year given its view of the risks to growth and inflation, for now we are sticking to our forecast... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2025) The modest decline in industrial production in May was driven by the volatile utilities sector; manufacturing and mining both increased, although admittedly only by a little. It is difficult to see a... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (June 25) The rise in home sales in May suggests a nascent recovery is underway in the housing market following a tariff-induced shock. While we see further upside for house prices this year, as lower mortgage... 16th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays defence The government’s new commitment to NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target will do little to help the economy this year, since the announced additional spending is focused in operations and... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2025) The stronger-than-expected June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggests that, despite ongoing policy uncertainty, consumers have become much less worried about both tariffs and... 13th June 2025 · 1 min read
